Fluminense FC RJ — Santos FC SP: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
49.0%
Home win
Fluminense FC RJ
X
25.5%
Draw
W2
25.5%
Away win
Santos FC SP
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1X74.5%
Both teams to score
Yes55.8%
Totals 2.5
Over53.3%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.5% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 51.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.4% / 6.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.7% / 22.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.4% / 84.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Goal distribution model
Fluminense FC RJ × Santos FC SP
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
6.6%
0:1
6.3%
0:2
3.9%
0:3
1.5%
0:4
0.4%
0:5
0.1%
1
1:0
9.4%
1:1
12.1%
1:2
6.5%
1:3
2.5%
1:4
0.7%
1:5
0.2%
2
2:0
8.4%
2:1
9.6%
2:2
5.5%
2:3
2.1%
2:4
0.6%
2:5
0.1%
3
3:0
4.7%
3:1
5.3%
3:2
3.0%
3:3
1.2%
3:4
0.3%
3:5
0.1%
4
4:0
1.9%
4:1
2.2%
4:2
1.3%
4:3
0.5%
4:4
0.1%
4:5
0.0%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.7%
5:2
0.4%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.0%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:112.1%
2:19.6%
1:09.4%
2:08.4%
0:06.6%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Fluminense FC RJ
3rd place · 51 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.10.2026 home Coritiba 4:0
- 20.09.2026 away Corinthians 3:1
- 12.09.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:3
- 06.09.2026 home Vasco 1:0
- 30.08.2026 away Athletico-PR 3:3
Santos FC SP
8th place · 42 pts after 29Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.10.2026 home Flamengo RJ 2:2
- 03.10.2026 away Sao Paulo 2:1
- 19.09.2026 away Remo 2:1
- 13.09.2026 home Cruzeiro 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Internacional 3:2
This season: Fluminense FC RJ at home vs Santos FC SP away
| Metric | Fluminense FC RJ · at home | Santos FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 15 | 14 |
| W–D–L | 11–3–1 | 5–4–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.87 | 1.64 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.93 | 1.64 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 79% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 79% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Fluminense FC RJ wins4
Draws2
Santos FC SP wins0
Goals per match2.33
Both teams scored2/6
Over 2.5 goals3/6
- 19.04.2026 Santos FC SP 2:3 Fluminense FC RJ
- 31.08.2025 Santos FC SP 0:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 13.04.2025 Fluminense FC RJ 1:0 Santos FC SP
- 29.11.2023 Santos FC SP 0:3 Fluminense FC RJ
- 29.07.2023 Fluminense FC RJ 1:0 Santos FC SP
- 02.08.2022 Santos FC SP 2:2 Fluminense FC RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.05 → now 1.95 |
| X | was 3.40 → now 3.60 |
| W2 | was 3.30 → now 3.60 |
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