Sao Paulo FC SP — Coritiba FC PR: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.0% |
| 12 | 72.0% | |
| X2 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.6% / 50.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.3% / 9.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.8% / 25.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Sao Paulo FC SP
12th place · 26 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Gremio 1:2
- 26.07.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Athletico-PR 1:2
- 01.06.2026 away Remo 0:1
- 23.05.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:1
Coritiba FC PR
10th place · 30 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:1
- 31.07.2026 home Cruzeiro 0:1
- 26.07.2026 away Bragantino 0:0
- 22.07.2026 home Palmeiras 1:3
- 30.05.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:3
This season: Sao Paulo FC SP at home vs Coritiba FC PR away
| Metric | Sao Paulo FC SP · at home | Coritiba FC PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–2 | 4–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.67 | 1.27 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.89 | 1.45 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 55% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 36% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.02.2026 Coritiba FC PR 0:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 27.09.2023 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:1 Coritiba FC PR
- 29.04.2023 Coritiba FC PR 1:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 21.10.2022 Sao Paulo FC SP 3:1 Coritiba FC PR
- 10.06.2022 Coritiba FC PR 1:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 23.01.2021 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:1 Coritiba FC PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Sao Paulo FC SP have a slight edge over Coritiba FC PR in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a relatively open assessment rather than a strong prediction. The available signal favours the home side, but the balance between the teams remains close enough for several match patterns to be plausible.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with both teams scoring viewed as an evenly balanced possibility. That suggests the opening goal could carry significant weight, particularly if Sao Paulo FC SP can make effective use of home advantage. Coritiba FC PR should still have a realistic opportunity to stay involved, especially if they keep the match compact and avoid conceding early. Overall, the hosts hold the narrower advantage, while a draw remains a credible outcome in a contest where the margin between the sides appears limited.
What matters before kick-off
São Paulo return to MorumBIS
São Paulo host Coritiba in round 23 of the 2026 Brasileirão at MorumBIS following the completion of pitch renovations. This marks Tricolor's home return to league action alongside their ongoing Copa Sudamericana campaign.
São Paulo team news
São Paulo prepare for the match against Coritiba without injured duo Lucas Moura and Rafael Tolói. Meanwhile, forward Artur recovered from adductor pain and returned to group training.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.