Atletico Mineiro MG — Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.4% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 45.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 49.5% / 50.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.1% / 8.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.2% / 25.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.7% / 52.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.0% / 74.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.0% / 88.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Atletico Mineiro MG
11th place · 29 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 away Remo 2:2
- 26.07.2026 away Palmeiras 2:1
- 21.07.2026 home Bahia 1:1
- 31.05.2026 away Vasco 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Corinthians 0:1
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
14th place · 25 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 08.08.2026 home Sao Paulo 2:1
- 26.07.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 18.07.2026 away Mirassol 1:2
- 30.05.2026 home Corinthians 1:3
- 23.05.2026 home Santos 3:2
This season: Atletico Mineiro MG at home vs Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS away
| Metric | Atletico Mineiro MG · at home | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–1 | 0–4–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.56 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.44 | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.02.2026 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:1 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 17.08.2025 Atletico Mineiro MG 1:3 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 29.03.2025 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:1 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 09.10.2024 Atletico Mineiro MG 2:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 01.09.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:3 Atletico Mineiro MG
- 26.11.2023 Atletico Mineiro MG 3:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Atletico Mineiro MG have a slight edge over Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS in this Brasileiro Serie A fixture. The assessment points to a competitive match in which the hosts hold the stronger overall position, but not by enough to dismiss the possibility of a draw. Atletico Mineiro MG should look to make their home advantage count through sustained pressure and more control of the match.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with the balance of possibilities ranging from a closely contested draw to a controlled home win. Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, so the game may depend on which side handles the key moments more effectively. A narrow Atletico Mineiro MG victory appears slightly more likely than an away success, while a level result remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Atlético Mineiro squad updates
Defender Lyanco missed out after suffering a foot injury in mid-week. Meanwhile, Renan Lodi returned to availability following a league suspension.
Atlético Mineiro Sudamericana success
Ahead of the match, Atlético Mineiro secured a 1-0 away victory against Red Bull Bragantino in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana round of 16.
Grêmio's previous Serie A result
In their preceding Brasileirão fixture, Grêmio secured a 2-1 comeback win against São Paulo thanks to goals from Wallace and Pavón.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.