EC Vitoria BA — Botafogo FR RJ: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 72.0% | |
| X2 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.7% / 47.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.7% / 26.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.5% / 52.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 25.9% / 74.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.9% / 88.1% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.7% / 95.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
EC Vitoria BA
13th place · 26 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:2
- 30.07.2026 home Palmeiras 0:4
- 26.07.2026 away Remo 0:2
- 23.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
- 16.07.2026 home Vasco 1:0
Botafogo FR RJ
9th place · 30 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:0
- 23.07.2026 home Vitoria 0:0
- 16.07.2026 home Santos 2:1
- 30.05.2026 away Bahia 1:2
This season: EC Vitoria BA at home vs Botafogo FR RJ away
| Metric | EC Vitoria BA · at home | Botafogo FR RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–2 | 4–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 1.55 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.70 | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 64% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 82% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.07.2026 Botafogo FR RJ 0:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 09.11.2025 EC Vitoria BA 0:0 Botafogo FR RJ
- 17.07.2025 Botafogo FR RJ 0:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 23.11.2024 Botafogo FR RJ 1:1 EC Vitoria BA
- 12.07.2024 EC Vitoria BA 0:1 Botafogo FR RJ
- 23.09.2018 EC Vitoria BA 3:4 Botafogo FR RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
EC Vitoria BA have a slight edge over Botafogo FR RJ in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the moderate confidence points to a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive advantage. The available assessment indicates a medium-scoring match, with the home side marginally better positioned across the main result market.
The scoring outlook remains open, but whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate. That uncertainty is consistent with the most likely scorelines, which include a level 1:1 draw alongside narrow outcomes such as a 1:0 home win and a goalless draw. EC Vitoria BA may have the stronger platform, particularly through home advantage, but Botafogo FR RJ remain well placed to make the game competitive. Overall, the match leans toward the hosts avoiding defeat, while the narrow range of plausible scores suggests limited room for a clear pre-match separation.
What matters before kick-off
Brasileirão matchday 23 fixture
EC Vitória host Botafogo FR on August 16, 2026, at the Barradão stadium in Salvador for matchday 23 of the Brazilian Championship.
Heavy Copa Sudamericana defeat for Botafogo
Botafogo enter the match under pressure after suffering a 6-1 defeat away to Peru's Cienciano in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana round of 16.
Vitória's Copa do Brasil progression
EC Vitória reach the match boosted by qualifying for the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals after eliminating Athletico Paranaense.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.