Chapecoense SC — EC Bahia BA: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 53.2% |
| 12 | 72.6% | |
| X2 | 74.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.0% / 43.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.5% / 7.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 31.0% / 69.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 10 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Coritiba 1:2
- 25.07.2026 away Santos 2:2
- 23.07.2026 home Flamengo RJ 0:4
- 17.07.2026 away Bahia 0:2
- 31.05.2026 away Palmeiras 0:1
EC Bahia BA
5th place · 33 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Vasco 0:0
- 30.07.2026 away Fluminense 0:0
- 26.07.2026 home Corinthians 1:1
- 21.07.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
- 17.07.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:0
This season: Chapecoense SC at home vs EC Bahia BA away
| Metric | Chapecoense SC · at home | EC Bahia BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 1–4–5 | 4–3–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 17.07.2026 EC Bahia BA 2:0 Chapecoense SC
- 25.10.2021 EC Bahia BA 3:0 Chapecoense SC
- 04.07.2021 Chapecoense SC 0:2 EC Bahia BA
- 07.11.2019 EC Bahia BA 1:1 Chapecoense SC
- 28.07.2019 Chapecoense SC 0:0 EC Bahia BA
- 04.11.2018 EC Bahia BA 1:0 Chapecoense SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chapecoense SC host EC Bahia BA in a Brasileiro Serie A match that projects as a competitive but moderately open contest. The assessment gives EC Bahia BA a slight edge, with the visitors carrying the stronger overall outlook. Chapecoense SC should still have enough attacking potential to keep the match balanced, particularly if they can make effective use of home advantage.
The scoring expectation points towards a medium-scoring game rather than a tightly closed encounter. Whether both teams find the net is difficult to separate, so the match could develop in either direction depending on the opening exchanges and the efficiency of each side in front of goal. The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 1:2 and 0:1, reflecting a narrow contest in which EC Bahia BA are marginally better placed but Chapecoense SC remain capable of avoiding defeat.
What matters before kick-off
Round 23 match at Arena Condá
Chapecoense host EC Bahia in round 23 of the Brasileiro Série A. The hosts sit at the bottom of the table with 10 points, while Bahia enter the match positioned in the top six.
Ademir suspended for Bahia
EC Bahia winger Ademir misses the away match against Chapecoense due to suspension.
Previous fixture in July
In their earlier league match this season, EC Bahia defeated Chapecoense 2-0 with goals from Rodrigo Nestor and Román Gómez.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.