CR Vasco da Gama RJ — Santos FC SP: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 77.0% |
| 12 | 73.5% | |
| X2 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.8% / 47.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 75.5% / 24.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 49.8% / 50.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 27.9% / 72.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 13.2% / 86.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.4% / 94.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
18th place · 22 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Bahia 0:0
- 26.07.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
- 16.07.2026 away Vitoria 0:1
- 31.05.2026 home Atletico-MG 0:1
- 25.05.2026 home Bragantino 0:3
Santos FC SP
17th place · 22 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Athletico-PR 0:2
- 25.07.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:2
- 16.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:2
- 31.05.2026 home Vitoria 3:1
- 23.05.2026 away Gremio 2:3
This season: CR Vasco da Gama RJ at home vs Santos FC SP away
| Metric | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · at home | Santos FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–4 | 0–4–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.27 | 2.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 89% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.02.2026 Santos FC SP 2:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 17.08.2025 Santos FC SP 0:6 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 30.03.2025 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 2:1 Santos FC SP
- 01.10.2023 Santos FC SP 4:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 14.05.2023 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:1 Santos FC SP
- 20.12.2020 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 1:0 Santos FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CR Vasco da Gama RJ host Santos FC SP in a Brasileiro Serie A meeting that points toward a competitive but moderately open contest. The available assessment gives CR Vasco da Gama RJ a slight edge, while the overall scoring outlook is medium-scoring. That suggests the hosts may have the more favourable platform, but not enough separation to expect a one-sided match.
Santos FC SP remain capable of contributing to the game, with both teams scoring judged to be an even possibility rather than a clear expectation. The strongest signal is therefore on the home side avoiding defeat, with the balance favouring CR Vasco da Gama RJ without removing the draw from consideration. A narrow home win or a level result fits the cautious profile of the matchup, and the teams could remain close throughout.
What matters before kick-off
Relegation battle in Série A
Vasco da Gama and Santos enter their 23rd-round Brasileirão matchup tied on 22 points inside the relegation zone.
Vasco's recent Copa Sudamericana result
Vasco da Gama come into the match following a 0-0 home draw against Olimpia in the first leg of the Copa Sudamericana round of 16.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.