Mirassol FC SP — CR Flamengo RJ: Win probabilities, 16.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 47.2% |
| 12 | 73.3% | |
| X2 | 79.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.3% / 46.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.0% / 8.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.9% / 23.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 28.9% / 71.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.0% / 86.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.8% / 94.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 16.08.2026
Mirassol FC SP
16th place · 23 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:3
- 29.07.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away Vasco 1:1
- 18.07.2026 home Gremio 2:1
- 30.05.2026 away Athletico-PR 0:1
CR Flamengo RJ
2nd place · 42 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Vitoria 2:0
- 29.07.2026 away Internacional 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Sao Paulo 1:1
- 23.07.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 4:0
- 30.05.2026 home Coritiba 3:0
This season: Mirassol FC SP at home vs CR Flamengo RJ away
| Metric | Mirassol FC SP · at home | CR Flamengo RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–3 | 6–3–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.36 | 1.82 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 06.12.2025 Mirassol FC SP 3:3 CR Flamengo RJ
- 09.08.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 2:1 Mirassol FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Mirassol FC SP face CR Flamengo RJ in a Brasileiro Serie A meeting where the visitors hold a slight edge. The overall assessment points toward CR Flamengo RJ avoiding defeat, while the expected scoring pattern suggests a game with a moderate number of goals rather than an extreme attacking contest.
Mirassol FC SP still have a credible route into the match, and the balance between both teams scoring remains finely poised. That makes a draw a realistic possibility alongside a narrow CR Flamengo RJ victory. The clearest analytical signal is therefore toward the visitors having the stronger position overall, but not to the extent that the home side can be discounted. A controlled, competitive match with limited separation between the teams is the most consistent reading of the available indicators.
What matters before kick-off
Flamengo squad updates and returnees
Flamengo travel to face Mirassol without Bruno Henrique, Alex Sandro, Vitão, Nicolás de la Cruz, and Everton Cebolinha. However, Luiz Araújo returns to the squad after recovering from a knee injury.
Recent Serie A form
Flamengo enter round 23 of Serie A following a 2-0 home victory over Vitória in their previous league match. Meanwhile, Mirassol suffered a 3-1 away defeat to Cruzeiro in their last league fixture.
Head-to-head history
Prior to this match, the two clubs had only met twice in history, both during the 2025 Brasileirão season. Flamengo earned a 2-1 win at the Maracanã, while the fixture at the Maião ended in a 3-3 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.