CA Paranaense PR — Red Bull Bragantino SP: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 76.1% |
| 12 | 71.0% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.0% / 49.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.1% / 26.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.0% / 54.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.5% / 75.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.1% / 88.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 40 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Santos 2:0
- 30.07.2026 away Corinthians 0:0
- 25.07.2026 home Internacional 2:0
- 23.07.2026 away Sao Paulo 2:1
- 30.05.2026 home Mirassol 1:0
Red Bull Bragantino SP
8th place · 31 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Corinthians 0:2
- 26.07.2026 home Coritiba 0:0
- 18.07.2026 away Fluminense 1:1
- 31.05.2026 home Internacional 3:1
- 25.05.2026 away Vasco 3:0
This season: CA Paranaense PR at home vs Red Bull Bragantino SP away
| Metric | CA Paranaense PR · at home | Red Bull Bragantino SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 8–2–1 | 4–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.73 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.55 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.02.2026 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 05.12.2024 CA Paranaense PR 1:2 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 21.07.2024 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 08.10.2023 CA Paranaense PR 1:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 20.05.2023 Red Bull Bragantino SP 2:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 22.10.2022 Red Bull Bragantino SP 4:2 CA Paranaense PR
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Paranaense PR have a slight but credible edge over Red Bull Bragantino SP in this Brasileiro Serie A matchup. The assessment points toward a competitive contest in which the home side is better placed, although the gap between the teams does not appear large enough to rule out a draw. The overall outlook is for a medium-scoring game rather than a defensive stalemate.
Both teams scoring is difficult to separate, making that aspect of the match finely balanced. The most plausible scorelines reflect the narrow margins: 1:1, 1:0, and 2:1 all fit the expected shape of the contest. CA Paranaense PR should be marginally more influential, particularly with home advantage, but Red Bull Bragantino SP remain capable of making the game uncomfortable and contributing to an even result. The main analytical signal therefore favours the hosts avoiding defeat, while a decisive win for either side would require the match to move beyond its otherwise balanced pattern.
What matters before kick-off
Athletico Paranaense form and position
Athletico Paranaense enter Round 23 of the 2026 Brasileirão unbeaten in seven league matches and sitting third in the table with 40 points following a 2-0 victory over Santos.
Red Bull Bragantino schedule congestion
Red Bull Bragantino head into the match managing a busy schedule following a 1-0 home loss to Atlético Mineiro in the Copa Sudamericana round of 16 first leg and a 2-0 league defeat to Corinthians.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.