Fluminense FC RJ — SE Palmeiras SP: Win probabilities, 15.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.0% |
| 12 | 70.2% | |
| X2 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.7% / 47.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.5% / 9.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 73.2% / 26.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 46.2% / 53.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 24.7% / 75.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 11.2% / 88.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.3% / 95.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.08.2026
Fluminense FC RJ
4th place · 35 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:1
- 30.07.2026 home Bahia 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away Gremio 1:1
- 18.07.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 01.06.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:1
SE Palmeiras SP
1st place · 48 pts after 22Last 5 matches · latest first
- 09.08.2026 home Internacional 0:0
- 30.07.2026 away Vitoria 4:0
- 26.07.2026 home Atletico-MG 1:2
- 22.07.2026 away Coritiba 3:1
- 31.05.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:0
This season: Fluminense FC RJ at home vs SE Palmeiras SP away
| Metric | Fluminense FC RJ · at home | SE Palmeiras SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 7–3–1 | 7–3–1 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.64 | 1.91 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.73 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.02.2026 SE Palmeiras SP 2:1 Fluminense FC RJ
- 23.11.2025 SE Palmeiras SP 0:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 23.07.2025 Fluminense FC RJ 1:2 SE Palmeiras SP
- 08.12.2024 SE Palmeiras SP 0:1 Fluminense FC RJ
- 25.07.2024 Fluminense FC RJ 1:0 SE Palmeiras SP
- 03.12.2023 SE Palmeiras SP 1:0 Fluminense FC RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Fluminense FC RJ and SE Palmeiras SP meet in Brasileiro Serie A in a contest that looks closely balanced. Neither side holds a clear overall advantage in the available assessment, and the moderate confidence level points to a match where small details may carry significant weight. The expected scoring profile is medium, suggesting a game with opportunities at both ends without a strong indication of an open attacking contest.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the match could develop in several different ways. A draw is a credible scenario, while the broader signal gives SE Palmeiras SP a slight edge in outcomes that avoid a home victory. That does not remove the possibility of Fluminense FC RJ controlling important phases, particularly if they can manage the tempo and limit transitions. Overall, the most reasonable expectation is a competitive encounter with a narrow margin between the teams and no clearly defined winner before kickoff.
What matters before kick-off
Managerial change at Fluminense
Fluminense head coach Luis Zubeldía was dismissed prior to the match. Assistant coach Marcão was put in interim charge for the fixture against Palmeiras.
Palmeiras' record league leadership
Palmeiras have been top of the Serie A standings for 16 consecutive rounds and hold the all-time record for most total rounds spent in first place during the round-robin era.
Congested schedule around Copa Libertadores
This round 23 fixture falls directly between the first and second legs of the Copa Libertadores round of 16 for both Fluminense and Palmeiras.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.