Santos FC SP — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.5% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.5% / 38.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.2% / 60.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Santos FC SP head into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a clear advantage over Chapecoense SC. The assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, with high confidence behind the home-win signal. Santos should therefore be expected to take the initiative, control the match for long periods and create the more consistent attacking threat.
The game is projected to have an open, high-scoring character rather than a cautious rhythm. Chapecoense SC may still find opportunities to contribute in attack, but whether both teams score is considered finely balanced. The main scoreline scenarios favour Santos FC SP, with 2–0 and 3–0 indicating a controlled home performance, while 2–1 reflects the possibility of Chapecoense making the contest more competitive. Overall, the match outlook gives Santos the stronger platform, although the final margin may depend on how effectively they convert their chances.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.