Santos FC SP — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.5% |
| 12 | 81.2% | |
| X2 | 28.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.6% / 16.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.5% / 38.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.2% / 60.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.5% / 78.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.3% / 89.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.07.2026
Santos FC SP
15th place · 21 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:2
- 31.05.2026 home Vitoria 3:1
- 23.05.2026 away Gremio 2:3
- 17.05.2026 home Coritiba 0:3
- 10.05.2026 home Bragantino 2:0
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 9 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Flamengo RJ 0:4
- 17.07.2026 away Bahia 0:2
- 31.05.2026 away Palmeiras 0:1
- 24.05.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:2
- 17.05.2026 home Remo 2:3
This season: Santos FC SP at home vs Chapecoense SC away
| Metric | Santos FC SP · at home | Chapecoense SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–3 | 0–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.50 | 0.44 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 44% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 28.01.2026 Chapecoense SC 4:2 Santos FC SP
- 17.11.2021 Santos FC SP 2:0 Chapecoense SC
- 01.08.2021 Chapecoense SC 0:1 Santos FC SP
- 01.12.2019 Santos FC SP 2:0 Chapecoense SC
- 31.08.2019 Chapecoense SC 0:1 Santos FC SP
- 12.11.2018 Santos FC SP 0:1 Chapecoense SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Santos FC SP head into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a clear advantage over Chapecoense SC. The assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, with high confidence behind the home-win signal. Santos should therefore be expected to take the initiative, control the match for long periods and create the more consistent attacking threat.
The game is projected to have an open, high-scoring character rather than a cautious rhythm. Chapecoense SC may still find opportunities to contribute in attack, but whether both teams score is considered finely balanced. The main scoreline scenarios favour Santos FC SP, with 2–0 and 3–0 indicating a controlled home performance, while 2–1 reflects the possibility of Chapecoense making the contest more competitive. Overall, the match outlook gives Santos the stronger platform, although the final margin may depend on how effectively they convert their chances.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.