CR Vasco da Gama RJ — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.07.2026
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
17th place · 20 pts after 19Last 5 matches · latest first
- 16.07.2026 away Vitoria 0:1
- 31.05.2026 home Atletico-MG 0:1
- 25.05.2026 home Bragantino 0:3
- 16.05.2026 away Internacional 1:4
- 11.05.2026 home Athletico-PR 1:0
Mirassol FC SP
18th place · 19 pts after 18Last 5 matches · latest first
- 18.07.2026 home Gremio 2:1
- 30.05.2026 away Athletico-PR 0:1
- 23.05.2026 home Fluminense 1:0
- 16.05.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:3
- 10.05.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 1:1
This season: CR Vasco da Gama RJ at home vs Mirassol FC SP away
| Metric | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · at home | Mirassol FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 5–1–4 | 1–1–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.30 | 1.63 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 29.01.2026 Mirassol FC SP 2:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 02.12.2025 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:2 Mirassol FC SP
- 02.08.2025 Mirassol FC SP 3:2 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CR Vasco da Gama RJ enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight edge over Mirassol FC SP. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts have the stronger overall outlook, although the margin between the teams is not large enough to dismiss a draw. The 1X signal therefore supports Vasco avoiding defeat rather than a decisive home victory.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with the most likely scorelines including 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1. That range reflects a balanced attacking outlook: both teams scoring is considered an even possibility, rather than a clear expectation. Mirassol FC SP remain capable of making the contest close, while CR Vasco da Gama RJ hold the more favorable position in the pre-match assessment.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.