CR Vasco da Gama RJ — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.2% / 47.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.3% / 25.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.2% / 51.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.9% / 95.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
CR Vasco da Gama RJ enter this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight edge over Mirassol FC SP. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts have the stronger overall outlook, although the margin between the teams is not large enough to dismiss a draw. The 1X signal therefore supports Vasco avoiding defeat rather than a decisive home victory.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with the most likely scorelines including 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1. That range reflects a balanced attacking outlook: both teams scoring is considered an even possibility, rather than a clear expectation. Mirassol FC SP remain capable of making the contest close, while CR Vasco da Gama RJ hold the more favorable position in the pre-match assessment.
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Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.