Santos FC SP — CA Paranaense PR: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 74.9% |
| 12 | 70.7% | |
| X2 | 54.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.7% / 9.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.9% / 25.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.2% / 73.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Santos FC SP
16th place · 22 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.07.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:2
- 16.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 1:2
- 31.05.2026 home Vitoria 3:1
- 23.05.2026 away Gremio 2:3
- 17.05.2026 home Coritiba 0:3
CA Paranaense PR
3rd place · 37 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.07.2026 away Corinthians 0:0
- 25.07.2026 home Internacional 2:0
- 23.07.2026 away Sao Paulo 2:1
- 30.05.2026 home Mirassol 1:0
- 24.05.2026 away Remo 2:1
This season: Santos FC SP at home vs CA Paranaense PR away
| Metric | Santos FC SP · at home | CA Paranaense PR · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–3 | 3–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.55 | 0.90 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.27 | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.02.2026 CA Paranaense PR 2:1 Santos FC SP
- 03.12.2023 CA Paranaense PR 3:0 Santos FC SP
- 05.08.2023 Santos FC SP 1:1 CA Paranaense PR
- 28.09.2022 Santos FC SP 2:0 CA Paranaense PR
- 04.06.2022 CA Paranaense PR 2:2 Santos FC SP
- 30.10.2021 CA Paranaense PR 0:1 Santos FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Santos FC SP go into this Brasileiro Serie A meeting with a slight but meaningful edge over CA Paranaense PR. The assessment points towards a medium-scoring contest, suggesting neither side is expected to dominate the game completely. Santos FC SP may be better placed to control key phases, but the margin between the teams remains narrow enough to keep the match competitive.
The possibility of both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the game could develop in several directions. A cautious opening would not be surprising, with both sides likely weighing the risks before committing numbers forward. Santos FC SP have the stronger overall signal, particularly in the protection offered by the home-or-draw outlook, but CA Paranaense PR retain a realistic chance of making the match difficult. The clearest expectation is therefore a close encounter in which small details and efficiency in attack may decide the outcome.
What matters before kick-off
Neymar suspended for Santos
Santos forward Neymar misses the match against Athletico Paranaense due to an automatic one-game suspension after accumulating three yellow cards in Série A.
Santos secured Copa do Brasil quarter-final spot
Prior to the league fixture, Santos earned a 1-0 away victory over Remo in mid-week to secure passage into the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.