Red Bull Bragantino SP — SC Corinthians SP: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.7% |
| 12 | 68.2% | |
| X2 | 58.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 39.7% / 60.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 19.6% / 80.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 8.1% / 91.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.9% / 97.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Red Bull Bragantino SP
6th place · 31 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Coritiba 0:0
- 18.07.2026 away Fluminense 1:1
- 31.05.2026 home Internacional 3:1
- 25.05.2026 away Vasco 3:0
- 17.05.2026 home Vitoria 2:0
SC Corinthians SP
9th place · 29 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.07.2026 home Athletico-PR 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away Bahia 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Remo 3:0
- 30.05.2026 away Gremio 3:1
- 24.05.2026 home Atletico-MG 1:0
This season: Red Bull Bragantino SP at home vs SC Corinthians SP away
| Metric | Red Bull Bragantino SP · at home | SC Corinthians SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–3 | 2–5–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.02.2026 SC Corinthians SP 2:0 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 05.11.2025 Red Bull Bragantino SP 2:1 SC Corinthians SP
- 13.07.2025 SC Corinthians SP 1:2 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 11.08.2024 SC Corinthians SP 1:1 Red Bull Bragantino SP
- 20.04.2024 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:0 SC Corinthians SP
- 05.11.2023 Red Bull Bragantino SP 1:0 SC Corinthians SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Red Bull Bragantino SP have a slight but well-supported edge over SC Corinthians SP in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The overall assessment points toward a competitive match in which the hosts are stronger, although the gap is not expected to be decisive. A home result or draw appears more consistent with the available signals than an away win.
The game is projected to produce a moderate amount of scoring, with neither side clearly favoured to find the net. Both teams scoring remains finely balanced, so the match could develop through a cautious opening and a relatively tight tactical contest. Red Bull Bragantino SP should have the stronger platform at home, while SC Corinthians SP remain capable of keeping the result level. The most plausible scenarios are a narrow home victory or a draw, with a low-margin scoreline likely.
What matters before kick-off
Red Bull Bragantino squad updates
Head coach Vagner Mancini welcomes back full-back Agustín Sant'Anna and midfielder Fabinho after their suspensions. However, Gustavo Marques is unavailable due to suspension and a thigh muscle injury.
Corinthians schedule and recent results
Fernando Diniz's Corinthians head into this Série A fixture shortly after being eliminated from the Copa do Brasil. Although they won 2-1 against Internacional in midweek, it was not enough to overturn their first-leg deficit.
Head-to-head record this season
Earlier in the current Série A campaign, Corinthians defeated Red Bull Bragantino 2-0 at the Neo Química Arena with goals from Gabriel Paulista and Matheus Bidu.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.