Cruzeiro EC MG — Mirassol FC SP: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.1% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 52.9% / 47.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.5% / 8.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.6% / 22.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 51.4% / 48.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.2% / 85.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.9% / 94.1% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Cruzeiro EC MG
7th place · 30 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.07.2026 away Coritiba 1:0
- 26.07.2026 home Botafogo RJ 0:1
- 23.07.2026 away Internacional 2:1
- 01.06.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 24.05.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:1
Mirassol FC SP
15th place · 23 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.07.2026 home Remo 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away Vasco 1:1
- 18.07.2026 home Gremio 2:1
- 30.05.2026 away Athletico-PR 0:1
- 23.05.2026 home Fluminense 1:0
This season: Cruzeiro EC MG at home vs Mirassol FC SP away
| Metric | Cruzeiro EC MG · at home | Mirassol FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 4–4–3 | 1–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.45 | 0.89 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.18 | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 44% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 11.02.2026 Mirassol FC SP 2:2 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 19.08.2025 Mirassol FC SP 1:1 Cruzeiro EC MG
- 29.03.2025 Cruzeiro EC MG 2:1 Mirassol FC SP
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Cruzeiro EC MG have a slight edge over Mirassol FC SP in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely balanced contest rather than a decisive home advantage. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger position, but it does not suggest a result that can be treated as certain. Mirassol FC SP remain capable of keeping the game competitive, particularly if they manage the early stages well and limit Cruzeiro EC MG’s opportunities.
The match is projected to produce a moderate amount of scoring, with several plausible outcomes reflecting the uncertainty. A 1:1 draw is among the likely scorelines, while 2:0 and 2:1 also fit the slight preference for Cruzeiro EC MG. Whether both teams score is considered evenly balanced, so the game could develop into an open exchange or remain controlled if one side protects its defensive shape. Overall, the hosts hold the marginal advantage, but the contest appears finely poised.
What matters before kick-off
Cruzeiro's Copa do Brasil Progress
Cruzeiro enter this Serie A match against Mirassol after securing a 2-0 win over Chapecoense to advance in the Copa do Brasil.
First-Round Draw
In their earlier meeting in the 2026 Brasileirão season, Cruzeiro and Mirassol played out a 2-2 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.