EC Bahia BA — CR Vasco da Gama RJ: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.6% |
| 12 | 72.5% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.6% / 43.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.2% / 84.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
EC Bahia BA
5th place · 32 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.07.2026 away Fluminense 0:0
- 26.07.2026 home Corinthians 1:1
- 21.07.2026 away Atletico-MG 1:1
- 17.07.2026 home Chapecoense-SC 2:0
- 30.05.2026 home Botafogo RJ 2:1
CR Vasco da Gama RJ
19th place · 21 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Mirassol 1:1
- 16.07.2026 away Vitoria 0:1
- 31.05.2026 home Atletico-MG 0:1
- 25.05.2026 home Bragantino 0:3
- 16.05.2026 away Internacional 1:4
This season: EC Bahia BA at home vs CR Vasco da Gama RJ away
| Metric | EC Bahia BA · at home | CR Vasco da Gama RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 4–5–2 | 0–4–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.55 | 1.11 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 1.89 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 78% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.02.2026 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 0:1 EC Bahia BA
- 23.11.2025 EC Bahia BA 1:0 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 24.09.2025 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 3:1 EC Bahia BA
- 29.10.2024 CR Vasco da Gama RJ 3:2 EC Bahia BA
- 27.06.2024 EC Bahia BA 2:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
- 03.09.2023 EC Bahia BA 1:1 CR Vasco da Gama RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
EC Bahia BA host CR Vasco da Gama RJ in Brasileiro Serie A, with the assessment pointing to a slight home advantage. The confidence in that reading is high, although the expected balance of the contest suggests a narrow rather than decisive difference between the sides. The home side has the stronger position in the evaluation, while CR Vasco da Gama RJ remain sufficiently competitive to keep the match open.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, with plausible paths including a level contest, a narrow home victory, or a controlled win for EC Bahia BA. Both teams scoring is considered an even possibility, so the game could develop with chances at both ends, but there is no strong indication that either side will dominate the attacking phases throughout. Overall, the analysis favours EC Bahia BA, while the draw remains a realistic outcome and the visitors should not be discounted.
What matters before kick-off
Injuries and suspensions
Bahia forward Erick Pulga is suspended for the match, while Éverton Ribeiro, Erick, and goalkeeper Léo Vieira are injured. Vasco da Gama will be without suspended midfielder Nuno Moreira and injured Mateus Carvalho.
Recent result and congestion
Vasco da Gama enter the match following a 3-1 victory against Fluminense in the Copa do Brasil, playing just three days before facing Bahia. In league play, Vasco are still seeking their first away win of the 2026 Série A season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.