Botafogo FR RJ — Fluminense FC RJ: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 72.3% |
| 12 | 70.5% | |
| X2 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.8% / 46.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 90.8% / 9.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.9% / 25.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 47.9% / 52.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.2% / 73.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 4.8% / 95.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
Botafogo FR RJ
8th place · 29 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:0
- 23.07.2026 home Vitoria 0:0
- 16.07.2026 home Santos 2:1
- 30.05.2026 away Bahia 1:2
- 23.05.2026 away Sao Paulo 1:1
Fluminense FC RJ
4th place · 34 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.07.2026 home Bahia 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away Gremio 1:1
- 18.07.2026 home Bragantino 1:1
- 01.06.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:1
- 23.05.2026 away Mirassol 0:1
This season: Botafogo FR RJ at home vs Fluminense FC RJ away
| Metric | Botafogo FR RJ · at home | Fluminense FC RJ · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–3–2 | 2–4–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.89 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.44 | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 89% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 70% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.02.2026 Fluminense FC RJ 1:0 Botafogo FR RJ
- 28.09.2025 Fluminense FC RJ 2:0 Botafogo FR RJ
- 27.04.2025 Botafogo FR RJ 2:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 21.09.2024 Fluminense FC RJ 0:1 Botafogo FR RJ
- 12.06.2024 Botafogo FR RJ 1:0 Fluminense FC RJ
- 08.10.2023 Fluminense FC RJ 0:2 Botafogo FR RJ
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Botafogo FR RJ enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture with a slight edge over Fluminense FC RJ. The assessment points toward a competitive match in which the home side has the stronger overall position, although the advantage is not large enough to remove the possibility of a draw. A narrow Botafogo FR RJ victory and a level result both fit the expected shape of the contest.
The scoring outlook is medium-scoring, but the data does not identify a clear preference on whether both teams will find the net. That aspect remains finely balanced, making the match difficult to separate through attacking output alone. The most plausible scorelines point toward a close encounter, including a draw or a narrow home win. Overall, the indication is for Botafogo FR RJ to avoid defeat, with Fluminense FC RJ still capable of keeping the game competitive throughout.
What matters before kick-off
Midfielder Huguinho is suspended for Botafogo
Botafogo head coach Franclim Carvalho will be without midfielder Huguinho for the derby against Fluminense due to a suspension for three yellow cards.
Botafogo enter derby fresh after two weeks off
Botafogo had almost two weeks to rest and train following their last match on July 26. Meanwhile, Fluminense return to Serie A action following their elimination in the Copa do Brasil round of 16.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.