Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS — Sao Paulo FC SP: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 69.5% | |
| X2 | 60.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 50.9% / 49.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 89.6% / 10.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 43.9% / 56.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 22.9% / 77.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 10.0% / 90.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 3.8% / 96.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.08.2026
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
17th place · 22 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 home Fluminense 1:1
- 18.07.2026 away Mirassol 1:2
- 30.05.2026 home Corinthians 1:3
- 23.05.2026 home Santos 3:2
- 17.05.2026 away Bahia 1:1
Sao Paulo FC SP
12th place · 26 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 26.07.2026 away Flamengo RJ 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Athletico-PR 1:2
- 01.06.2026 away Remo 0:1
- 23.05.2026 home Botafogo RJ 1:1
- 16.05.2026 away Fluminense 1:2
This season: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS at home vs Sao Paulo FC SP away
| Metric | Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS · at home | Sao Paulo FC SP · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–2 | 2–3–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 0.91 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 36% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 64% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 12.02.2026 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 16.10.2025 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:0 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 18.05.2025 Sao Paulo FC SP 2:1 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 01.12.2024 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS 2:1 Sao Paulo FC SP
- 18.07.2024 Sao Paulo FC SP 1:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
- 21.10.2023 Sao Paulo FC SP 3:0 Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS and Sao Paulo FC SP appear evenly matched ahead of their Brasileiro Serie A meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, so there is no clear basis for separating the teams strongly before kickoff. Home advantage gives Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS some support, but Sao Paulo FC SP remain well placed to compete for a result.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:1 standing out as the most representative scoreline among the likely outcomes. A goalless draw and a narrow 1:0 home win are also consistent with the overall picture. Whether both teams score is difficult to call, suggesting that the game could develop into a balanced contest rather than following a clearly defined attacking pattern. The main reading is therefore cautious: Gremio FB Porto Alegrense RS have some protection at home, but a draw remains a substantial possibility.
What matters before kick-off
São Paulo squad updates and absentees
São Paulo forward Artur was ruled out against Grêmio due to adductor pain, joining Lucas Moura and Rafael Tolói on the injured list. Meanwhile, new signings Domingos Duarte, Iago, and Newton were included in the squad for the first time.
Grêmio's recent Copa do Brasil result
Grêmio enter the match following a midweek 1-0 win against Mirassol, which secured their qualification for the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals.
Série A standings context for both teams
Heading into matchday 22 of the Brasileirão, São Paulo are on a seven-match winless streak in the league in 12th place (26 points), while Grêmio sit in the relegation zone in 17th position (22 points).
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.