Coritiba FC PR — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 83.7% |
| 12 | 74.4% | |
| X2 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 91.4% / 8.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.7% / 25.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.4% / 51.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.0% / 95.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 08.08.2026
Coritiba FC PR
11th place · 27 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 31.07.2026 home Cruzeiro 0:1
- 26.07.2026 away Bragantino 0:0
- 22.07.2026 home Palmeiras 1:3
- 30.05.2026 away Flamengo RJ 0:3
- 26.05.2026 home Bahia 3:2
Chapecoense SC
20th place · 10 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 25.07.2026 away Santos 2:2
- 23.07.2026 home Flamengo RJ 0:4
- 17.07.2026 away Bahia 0:2
- 31.05.2026 away Palmeiras 0:1
- 24.05.2026 away Cruzeiro 1:2
This season: Coritiba FC PR at home vs Chapecoense SC away
| Metric | Coritiba FC PR · at home | Chapecoense SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 3–3–4 | 0–3–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.20 | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.02.2026 Chapecoense SC 3:3 Coritiba FC PR
- 03.12.2017 Chapecoense SC 2:1 Coritiba FC PR
- 06.08.2017 Coritiba FC PR 2:0 Chapecoense SC
- 11.09.2016 Chapecoense SC 1:0 Coritiba FC PR
- 02.06.2016 Coritiba FC PR 3:4 Chapecoense SC
- 23.08.2015 Coritiba FC PR 1:0 Chapecoense SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Coritiba FC PR have a slight edge over Chapecoense SC in this Brasileiro Serie A meeting, although the low confidence points to a closely contestable match rather than a clear home advantage. The available assessment suggests a medium-scoring game, with the hosts marginally better placed to control the outcome.
The scoring outlook remains balanced: both teams scoring is considered a coin flip, so the match could develop either through contributions from both sides or through a more controlled home performance. The most plausible scorelines are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:0, which reflects the narrow gap between the teams and leaves a draw as a credible possibility alongside a Coritiba FC PR win.
What matters before kick-off
Yannick Bolasie sidelined with injury
Chapecoense forward Yannick Bolasie was hospitalized and ruled out of the match following an abdominal injury sustained against Cruzeiro in the Copa do Brasil.
Coritiba seek to break winless streak
Coritiba enter the round 22 Brasileirão fixture attempting to end a four-match winless run in the league.
High-scoring draw earlier in the season
The previous league meeting between Chapecoense and Coritiba in round 3 of the 2026 Brasileirão season finished in a 3-3 draw.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.