Coritiba FC PR — Chapecoense SC: Win probabilities, 08.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 85.9% |
| 12 | 76.8% | |
| X2 | 37.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 45.8% / 54.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 92.1% / 7.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 74.4% / 25.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 48.7% / 51.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 26.9% / 73.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 12.6% / 87.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 5.1% / 94.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Coritiba FC PR enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture with a moderate but clear analytical advantage over Chapecoense SC. The overall signal points toward a home win, although the level of confidence suggests that this is an edge rather than a definitive expectation. Coritiba’s stronger position makes them the more likely side to control the match, particularly if they can impose a consistent rhythm from the start.
The scoring outlook is medium, with the most plausible scorelines indicating a relatively controlled contest rather than an open exchange. A 1-0 or 2-0 victory for Coritiba FC PR fits the main assessment, while 1-1 remains a credible alternative. The question of whether both teams score is finely balanced, so Chapecoense SC should not be completely discounted in the attacking phases. Overall, the match leans toward Coritiba, but the moderate confidence leaves room for a close result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.