CR Flamengo RJ — EC Vitoria BA: Win probabilities, 09.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 93.5% |
| 12 | 85.3% | |
| X2 | 21.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 42.7% / 57.3% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 82.7% / 17.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.2% / 38.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 09.08.2026
CR Flamengo RJ
2nd place · 39 pts after 20Last 5 matches · latest first
- 29.07.2026 away Internacional 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Sao Paulo 1:1
- 23.07.2026 away Chapecoense-SC 4:0
- 30.05.2026 home Coritiba 3:0
- 24.05.2026 home Palmeiras 0:3
EC Vitoria BA
13th place · 26 pts after 21Last 5 matches · latest first
- 30.07.2026 home Palmeiras 0:4
- 26.07.2026 away Remo 0:2
- 23.07.2026 away Botafogo RJ 0:0
- 16.07.2026 home Vasco 1:0
- 31.05.2026 away Santos 1:3
This season: CR Flamengo RJ at home vs EC Vitoria BA away
| Metric | CR Flamengo RJ · at home | EC Vitoria BA · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 11 |
| W–D–L | 5–3–1 | 0–4–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.89 | 0.64 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.89 | 2.18 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 45% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 55% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.02.2026 EC Vitoria BA 1:2 CR Flamengo RJ
- 26.08.2025 CR Flamengo RJ 8:0 EC Vitoria BA
- 06.04.2025 EC Vitoria BA 1:2 CR Flamengo RJ
- 08.12.2024 CR Flamengo RJ 2:2 EC Vitoria BA
- 25.07.2024 EC Vitoria BA 1:2 CR Flamengo RJ
- 23.08.2018 CR Flamengo RJ 1:0 EC Vitoria BA
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CR Flamengo RJ enter this Brasileiro Serie A fixture as the clearly stronger side, with the available assessment giving them a high-confidence advantage over EC Vitoria BA. The main signal points toward a home win, and the scoring outlook suggests an open match with several attacking moments rather than a tightly controlled low-scoring contest.
The most likely score patterns favor CR Flamengo RJ keeping EC Vitoria BA at a distance, with 2:0, 3:0 and 1:0 among the projected results. However, the possibility of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, so EC Vitoria BA cannot be entirely discounted in the attacking phase. The overall picture remains one of CR Flamengo RJ having greater control and a stronger platform at home, while the visitors will need to make efficient use of their opportunities to alter the expected balance.
What matters before kick-off
Flamengo squad update
Lucas Paquetá and Gonzalo Plata returned to Flamengo's squad after recovering from injuries. Meanwhile, Nicolás de la Cruz is suspended and Luiz Araújo remains sidelined with a knee injury.
Vitória's recent Copa do Brasil result
Vitória heading into the Série A round 22 fixture following a 4-0 victory over Athletico Paranaense in the Copa do Brasil round of 16.
Head-to-head record
Flamengo hold a strong historical record against Vitória, with 43 wins and only 11 defeats in 70 matches across all competitions.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.