San Jose Earthquakes — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 27.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.8% |
| 12 | 77.6% | |
| X2 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 72.5% / 27.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.9% / 3.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 90.4% / 9.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.7% / 66.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers meet in an MLS fixture that appears to favour the hosts slightly, though the assessment remains moderate rather than decisive. San Jose Earthquakes have the clearer side of the matchup in the available signals, but a draw is also a realistic outcome. That points toward a cautious home-oriented view, with the hosts best placed to avoid defeat rather than an expectation of a straightforward win.
The attacking outlook is more open. The match is projected to be high-scoring, and both San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers are considered likely to find the net. That combination could produce an even contest with momentum shifting between the teams, particularly if an early goal changes the game’s structure. Plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1, and 2:2, reflecting the balance between a slight edge for San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers’ capacity to contribute offensively.
What matters before kick-off
Portland Timbers defense weakened by absences
Portland Timbers will be without both starting center backs, as Finn Surman suffered an MCL sprain expected to keep him out for 4–6 weeks, while Joel Waterman serves a one-match suspension for yellow card accumulation.
San Jose Earthquakes enter on five-match unbeaten run
San Jose Earthquakes come into the match on a five-game unbeaten streak in MLS after rallying to draw 2-2 against LAFC in their previous league fixture.
Previous meeting result between the teams
In the teams' previous meeting earlier this season, San Jose Earthquakes secured a 3-1 away victory over Portland Timbers at Providence Park.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.