San Jose Earthquakes — Nashville SC: Win probabilities, 18.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
27.8%
Home win
San Jose Earthquakes
X
24.6%
Draw
W2
47.6%
Away win
Nashville SC
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.4%
Both teams to score
Yes67.0%
Totals 2.5
Over66.0%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.4% |
| 12 | 75.4% | |
| X2 | 72.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.4% / 4.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.6% / 13.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.1% / 55.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.5% / 74.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.9% / 87.1% |
Goal distribution model
San Jose Earthquakes × Nashville SC
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
4.6%
0:1
5.2%
0:2
6.3%
0:3
4.1%
0:4
2.0%
0:5
0.8%
1
1:0
3.6%
1:1
10.8%
1:2
9.2%
1:3
5.9%
1:4
2.9%
1:5
1.1%
2
2:0
3.6%
2:1
6.9%
2:2
6.7%
2:3
4.3%
2:4
2.1%
2:5
0.8%
3
3:0
1.7%
3:1
3.4%
3:2
3.3%
3:3
2.1%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.4%
4
4:0
0.6%
4:1
1.2%
4:2
1.2%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.4%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.2%
5:1
0.4%
5:2
0.3%
5:3
0.2%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.8%
1:29.2%
2:16.9%
2:26.7%
0:26.3%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 18.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Portland Timbers 3:1
- 20.09.2026 home Los Angeles FC 2:2
- 13.09.2026 home Houston Dynamo 1:0
- 10.09.2026 away San Diego FC 3:2
- 06.09.2026 away Austin FC 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Toronto FC 2:0
- 20.09.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:0
- 13.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
- 10.09.2026 away Toronto FC 1:2
- 05.09.2026 away New York City 0:0
This season: San Jose Earthquakes at home vs Nashville SC away
| Metric | San Jose Earthquakes · at home | Nashville SC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–5 | 5–5–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.79 | 1.08 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.57 | 0.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 31% |
Head-to-head · Last 4 meetings
San Jose Earthquakes wins0
Draws4
Nashville SC wins0
Goals per match2.00
Both teams scored3/4
Over 2.5 goals1/4
- 28.04.2024 Nashville SC 1:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 24.09.2023 San Jose Earthquakes 1:1 Nashville SC
- 12.06.2022 Nashville SC 0:0 San Jose Earthquakes
- 16.04.2022 San Jose Earthquakes 2:2 Nashville SC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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