San Jose Earthquakes — Minnesota United FC: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.0% |
| 12 | 74.7% | |
| X2 | 58.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.9% / 31.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.4% / 12.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.0% / 33.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 45.3% / 54.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.6% / 73.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.6% / 86.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
- 02.08.2026 away FC Cincinnati 2:4
- 26.07.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home Orlando City 0:4
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home Atlanta Utd 1:2
- 16.08.2026 away Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home San Diego FC 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 0:0
- 23.07.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:2
This season: San Jose Earthquakes at home vs Minnesota United FC away
| Metric | San Jose Earthquakes · at home | Minnesota United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–4 | 4–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 13.07.2025 Minnesota United FC 4:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 09.03.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 0:1 Minnesota United FC
- 01.09.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 1:2 Minnesota United FC
- 21.07.2024 Minnesota United FC 2:0 San Jose Earthquakes
- 01.10.2023 Minnesota United FC 1:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 03.09.2023 San Jose Earthquakes 1:1 Minnesota United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting on 23 August 2026. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, with a moderate level of confidence in that reading. This points to a contest where small differences in execution could shape the outcome rather than one team entering as an obvious favorite.
The stronger signal concerns the attacking nature of the game. It is projected to be high-scoring, while both teams are considered likely to score, making BTTS the main market indication. That suggests an open match with opportunities at both ends, although the balanced outlook leaves several plausible outcomes. San Jose Earthquakes may benefit from playing at home, but Minnesota United FC have enough expected attacking presence to keep the contest competitive. A draw or a narrow win for either side fits the available profile better than a one-sided result.
What matters before kick-off
San Jose coming off loss to LA Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes return home following a 1-0 away defeat against the LA Galaxy on August 19, 2026.
Minnesota United on nine-game winless streak
Minnesota United enter the fixture seeking to end a nine-game winless run in Major League Soccer regular season play.
Previous meeting at PayPal Park ended 4-2 to San Jose
In their most recent clash at PayPal Park in April 2026, San Jose Earthquakes defeated Minnesota United FC 4-2 in the U.S. Open Cup Round of 16.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.