Los Angeles FC — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 79.6% |
| 12 | 77.5% | |
| X2 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.4% / 32.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.8% / 11.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.4% / 70.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 16.08.2026 home San Diego FC 0:1
- 02.08.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 4:0
- 23.07.2026 home Real Salt Lake 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home San Diego FC 3:1
- 16.08.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Seattle Sounders 2:1
- 26.07.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 23.07.2026 home FC Dallas 2:2
This season: Los Angeles FC at home vs Portland Timbers away
| Metric | Los Angeles FC · at home | Portland Timbers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–3 | 2–1–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.91 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 27% | 60% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 11.04.2026 Portland Timbers 2:1 Los Angeles FC
- 26.07.2025 Los Angeles FC 0:1 Portland Timbers
- 20.04.2025 Portland Timbers 3:3 Los Angeles FC
- 28.04.2024 Los Angeles FC 3:2 Portland Timbers
- 13.04.2024 Portland Timbers 2:2 Los Angeles FC
- 10.09.2023 Portland Timbers 2:0 Los Angeles FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Los Angeles FC meet Portland Timbers in an MLS fixture that projects to be an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives Los Angeles FC a slight edge, although the moderate confidence level suggests that the balance remains relatively close rather than strongly one-sided. The game is also expected to have an attacking character, with a high-scoring pattern identified.
Both teams are considered likely to score, making the BTTS signal the clearest feature of the preview. That points toward a match in which Portland Timbers should have opportunities even if Los Angeles FC are viewed as the stronger side overall. The most plausible scorelines include a draw, a narrow home victory, or a more controlled win for Los Angeles FC. Overall, the hosts have the better outlook, but the expected openness of the match leaves room for Portland Timbers to influence the result.
What matters before kick-off
Recent result for LAFC
LAFC enter the match coming off a 1-0 away defeat against Colorado Rapids in midweek, marking their second consecutive 1-0 loss in MLS play.
Recent result for Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers travel to Los Angeles following a 2-1 home victory over San Diego FC earlier in the week.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.