San Diego FC — Colorado Rapids: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.1% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.2% / 14.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 64.6% / 35.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 42.6% / 57.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.3% / 75.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.1% / 87.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:3
- 16.08.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:0
- 02.08.2026 away Minnesota United 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home FC Dallas 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home Los Angeles FC 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 2:0
- 02.08.2026 home Austin FC 1:0
- 26.07.2026 away St. Louis City 0:1
- 23.07.2026 home San Diego FC 1:0
This season: San Diego FC at home vs Colorado Rapids away
| Metric | San Diego FC · at home | Colorado Rapids · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–3–3 | 2–1–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.50 | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
- 23.07.2026 Colorado Rapids 1:0 San Diego FC
- 15.05.2025 San Diego FC 2:0 Colorado Rapids
- 13.04.2025 Colorado Rapids 3:2 San Diego FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
San Diego FC have a slight edge over Colorado Rapids in this MLS meeting, with the home side supported by the stronger overall signal. That advantage is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest, however, and Colorado Rapids remain capable of making the match competitive, particularly if they can take advantage of openings in transition.
The available assessment points towards an open, high-scoring game in which both San Diego FC and Colorado Rapids are likely to find the net. That makes the balance of defensive control and attacking efficiency important, as either team could create momentum if the match becomes stretched. San Diego FC appear better placed to avoid defeat, but the draw remains a credible outcome and Colorado Rapids have enough attacking potential to threaten the hosts. The most plausible pattern is a close contest with goals at both ends rather than a controlled home victory.
What matters before kick-off
Colorado Rapids Recent Form
Colorado Rapids enter the match on a three-game MLS winning streak after defeating LAFC 1-0 on Wednesday.
San Diego FC Recent Result
San Diego FC lost 3-1 away to the Portland Timbers on Wednesday, snapping their three-match unbeaten streak in regular season play.
Nico Hansen Personal Best
Colorado Rapids goalkeeper Nico Hansen recorded his fifth clean sheet of the season against LAFC, setting a new single-season career high.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.