Austin FC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.7% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 71.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:1
- 17.08.2026 home FC Dallas 1:2
- 02.08.2026 away Colorado Rapids 0:1
- 26.07.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:3
- 23.07.2026 home Seattle Sounders 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home Inter Miami 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away New York City 3:2
- 02.08.2026 home Atlanta Utd 3:2
- 26.07.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:0
- 23.07.2026 home New York Red Bulls 3:1
This season: Austin FC at home vs Philadelphia Union away
| Metric | Austin FC · at home | Philadelphia Union · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–3 | 2–1–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.44 | 1.80 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 1 meetings
- 17.03.2024 Austin FC 2:2 Philadelphia Union
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Austin FC and Philadelphia Union meet in an MLS contest that projects as an open and competitive match. The available indicators point toward a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to score. That suggests neither side is expected to focus exclusively on control or defensive security, and the match could develop through exchanges at both ends of the pitch.
Philadelphia Union hold a slight edge in the overall assessment, although the outlook also leaves room for a draw. Austin FC will have home advantage, but Philadelphia Union are the side with the stronger directional signal. The most plausible scenarios include a level score or a narrow Philadelphia Union victory, rather than a one-sided contest. With goals expected from both teams, the key question is whether Austin FC can make home advantage count sufficiently to turn an open match in their favour.
What matters before kick-off
Kickoff time adjusted due to heat
Major League Soccer adjusted the kickoff time for Austin FC's home match against Philadelphia Union to 8:00 p.m. CT due to forecasted high temperatures.
Austin FC player availability report
According to Austin FC's official availability report, midfielder Owen Wolff is ruled out of the match against Philadelphia Union due to an ankle injury.
Philadelphia Union's unbeaten streak
Philadelphia Union entered their away fixture against Austin FC carrying a five-match unbeaten run in MLS regular season play.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.