Austin FC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 54.7% |
| 12 | 73.7% | |
| X2 | 71.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.8% / 36.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.9% / 16.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Austin FC face Philadelphia Union in an MLS meeting that points toward an open and competitive contest. The available assessment indicates a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to find the net. That suggests neither side is expected to remain passive, and the match could develop through periods of pressure at both ends rather than being controlled by one team throughout.
Philadelphia Union hold a slight edge, although the moderate confidence level points to a close matchup rather than a decisive imbalance. The X2 signal supports Philadelphia Union avoiding defeat, while the range of likely scorelines also leaves room for a draw or a narrow result for Austin FC. The central expectation is therefore a balanced game with attacking moments from both teams, where Philadelphia Union appear marginally better placed but Austin FC remain capable of making the contest tight.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.