CF Montreal — Los Angeles Galaxy: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 74.0% | |
| X2 | 50.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.1% / 35.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.2% / 5.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.0% / 15.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.5% / 37.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.2% / 59.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.3% / 77.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.8% / 89.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home DC United 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home New England Revolution 2:2
- 26.07.2026 home Inter Miami 0:1
- 23.07.2026 away Nashville SC 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 1:0
- 16.08.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:1
- 02.08.2026 home FC Dallas 0:0
- 26.07.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:1
- 23.07.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
This season: CF Montreal at home vs Los Angeles Galaxy away
| Metric | CF Montreal · at home | Los Angeles Galaxy · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 3–4–3 | 3–3–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.10 | 1.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 05.07.2022 Los Angeles Galaxy 4:0 CF Montreal
- 22.09.2019 Los Angeles Galaxy 2:1 CF Montreal
- 21.05.2018 CF Montreal 0:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 08.04.2017 Los Angeles Galaxy 2:0 CF Montreal
- 29.05.2016 CF Montreal 3:2 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 13.09.2015 Los Angeles Galaxy 0:0 CF Montreal
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CF Montreal hold a slight edge over Los Angeles Galaxy in this MLS matchup, although the assessment does not point to a one-sided contest. The home side has the stronger overall signal, with the hosts favoured to avoid defeat. That advantage is meaningful, but the range of likely outcomes still includes a draw and a narrow victory for Los Angeles Galaxy, so the balance between the teams should remain an important factor.
The match is expected to produce an open, high-scoring pattern, with both CF Montreal and Los Angeles Galaxy likely to find the net. This makes a cautious, low-event game less likely and places greater emphasis on how each side manages the spaces created in attack. The most plausible scorelines remain close, including a draw or a one-goal margin either way. Overall, CF Montreal have the clearer edge, but the expected scoring profile suggests that Los Angeles Galaxy should retain a realistic route to a positive result.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Match Results
The LA Galaxy enter the match following a 1-0 win against the San Jose Earthquakes. Meanwhile, CF Montréal won their previous fixture 2-1 against the Columbus Crew.
LA Galaxy Defensive Form
The LA Galaxy have conceded just once in August (from the penalty spot), going 298 consecutive minutes without allowing an open-play goal.
Head-to-Head History
The LA Galaxy have won each of their last four meetings against CF Montréal by an aggregate score of 9-1, including a 4-0 victory in their previous matchup in September 2022.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.