Orlando City SC — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 70.5% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.8% / 30.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.3% / 3.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.4% / 11.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 69.7% / 30.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 48.5% / 51.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 29.3% / 70.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 15.6% / 84.4% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:2
- 16.08.2026 home FC Cincinnati 1:1
- 02.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:3
- 26.07.2026 home Nashville SC 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 4:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home FC Dallas 3:4
- 16.08.2026 home Minnesota United 1:1
- 02.08.2026 away St. Louis City 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:2
- 23.07.2026 away Los Angeles FC 1:3
This season: Orlando City SC at home vs Real Salt Lake away
| Metric | Orlando City SC · at home | Real Salt Lake · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–4 | 1–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.70 | 1.22 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.60 | 1.89 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 89% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.07.2023 Real Salt Lake 4:0 Orlando City SC
- 29.02.2020 Orlando City SC 0:0 Real Salt Lake
- 14.04.2019 Real Salt Lake 2:1 Orlando City SC
- 06.05.2018 Orlando City SC 3:1 Real Salt Lake
- 01.07.2017 Real Salt Lake 0:1 Orlando City SC
- 06.03.2016 Orlando City SC 2:2 Real Salt Lake
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Orlando City SC have a slight edge over Real Salt Lake in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence level points to a competitive contest rather than a one-sided affair. The available assessment gives the hosts the stronger position, with the home side also supported by the broader protection of avoiding defeat.
The expected pattern is an open match with chances at both ends. Orlando City SC and Real Salt Lake are both likely to score, making a high-scoring game more plausible than a tightly controlled defensive battle. The main scoreline scenarios keep the contest close, ranging from a draw to a narrow home victory, so the difference may come down to which team makes better use of its opportunities. Overall, the balance favours Orlando City SC slightly, but Real Salt Lake remain capable of making the result uncertain deep into the match.
What matters before kick-off
Orlando City Player Status Report
Orlando City SC ruled out Braian Ojeda, Martín Ojeda, and Bernardo Rhein due to injury, while Adrián Marín was listed as questionable.
Heavy Schedule Congestion for Orlando City
The match marks Orlando City SC's seventh consecutive fixture in August played with no more than three days of rest, concluding a six-match homestand across all competitions.
Midfielder Loan Deal Between Clubs
Real Salt Lake acquired 19-year-old U.S. youth international midfielder Colin Guske on loan from Orlando City SC through the end of the 2026 season.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.