Charlotte FC — DC United: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.5% |
| 12 | 76.0% | |
| X2 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.8% / 39.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.4% / 5.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.1% / 15.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.7% / 38.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 39.5% / 60.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.7% / 78.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.4% / 89.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Toronto FC 3:3
- 16.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:1
- 02.08.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
- 25.07.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:0
- 23.07.2026 home Atlanta Utd 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home New England Revolution 0:3
- 16.08.2026 away CF Montreal 1:1
- 02.08.2026 home Nashville SC 2:2
- 26.07.2026 home Toronto FC 2:1
- 23.07.2026 away Houston Dynamo 1:1
This season: Charlotte FC at home vs DC United away
| Metric | Charlotte FC · at home | DC United · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–2 | 2–6–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.09 | 1.20 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.09 | 1.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 73% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 04.10.2025 DC United 0:1 Charlotte FC
- 17.07.2025 Charlotte FC 2:1 DC United
- 19.10.2024 DC United 0:3 Charlotte FC
- 16.06.2024 Charlotte FC 1:0 DC United
- 17.09.2023 Charlotte FC 0:0 DC United
- 30.04.2023 DC United 3:0 Charlotte FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Charlotte FC have a slight edge over DC United in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence suggests a balanced contest rather than a clear home advantage. The available scoring outlook points toward an open match in which both teams are likely to find the net, giving the game a potentially lively rhythm from the outset.
The most plausible scorelines include 1:1, 2:1 and 2:0, reflecting a close contest with Charlotte FC marginally better placed. At the same time, the market signal leans toward Under, which suggests that the match may remain within a controlled scoring range despite the expectation of chances at both ends. DC United should therefore remain competitive, while Charlotte FC’s home position provides the narrow distinction between the sides.
What matters before kick-off
Player availability report
Charlotte FC listed Nimfasha Berchimas, Aron John, and Harry Toffolo as out. D.C. United ruled out Jordan Farr and Gabe Segal, while Joao Peglow and Kye Rowles were listed as questionable.
D.C. United's recent result
D.C. United enter the match following a 3-0 home defeat against the New England Revolution in MLS play on August 19.
Pep Biel's record against D.C. United
Charlotte FC midfielder Pep Biel has scored three goals in two career appearances against D.C. United.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.