New York Red Bulls — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.4% |
| 12 | 73.2% | |
| X2 | 63.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 75.4% / 24.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 92.3% / 7.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 73.5% / 26.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 53.2% / 46.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 33.7% / 66.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 18.8% / 81.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home Nashville SC 0:1
- 16.08.2026 away Atlanta Utd 1:2
- 02.08.2026 home Orlando City 3:2
- 25.07.2026 home Charlotte 0:2
- 23.07.2026 away Philadelphia Union 1:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Orlando City 2:1
- 16.08.2026 home Portland Timbers 2:1
- 02.08.2026 home Charlotte 2:1
- 26.07.2026 away New York City 1:3
- 23.07.2026 away Inter Miami 2:3
This season: New York Red Bulls at home vs Chicago Fire away
| Metric | New York Red Bulls · at home | Chicago Fire · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 10 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 4–2–4 | 4–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.60 | 1.78 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.90 | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 78% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 78% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.05.2026 Chicago Fire 1:3 New York Red Bulls
- 27.07.2025 Chicago Fire 1:0 New York Red Bulls
- 06.04.2025 New York Red Bulls 2:1 Chicago Fire
- 15.09.2024 Chicago Fire 2:1 New York Red Bulls
- 14.04.2024 New York Red Bulls 0:0 Chicago Fire
- 01.10.2023 New York Red Bulls 0:1 Chicago Fire
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York Red Bulls and Chicago Fire look evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives no clear basis for separating the teams, so the contest may be shaped by which side handles the key moments more effectively. New York Red Bulls will have home advantage, while Chicago Fire will aim to remain competitive away from home, making the balance of the match difficult to define.
The main attacking signal points toward an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to find the net. That suggests neither side is expected to settle exclusively into a cautious approach, with opportunities potentially developing at both ends. Even so, the evenly matched outlook means the game could remain finely balanced throughout, and small details such as finishing, defensive concentration, and response to setbacks may prove decisive. A draw is a credible possibility, but the overall expectation is for an entertaining contest rather than a one-sided performance.
What matters before kick-off
Recent team form
Chicago Fire FC enter the match on a six-game winning streak across all competitions following a 2-1 victory over Orlando City SC. Meanwhile, the New York Red Bulls have lost four of their last five matches, including a 1-0 home defeat against Nashville SC.
Head-to-head record
The previous MLS encounter between the sides this season ended in a 3-1 victory for the New York Red Bulls in Chicago on May 9.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.