Inter Miami CF — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 22.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 89.4% |
| 12 | 84.7% | |
| X2 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.8% / 32.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.8% / 2.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 93.7% / 6.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 80.3% / 19.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 26.4% / 73.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Philadelphia Union 2:2
- 16.08.2026 away Nashville SC 1:4
- 02.08.2026 home Columbus Crew 2:2
- 26.07.2026 away CF Montreal 1:0
- 23.07.2026 home Chicago Fire 3:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 home Charlotte 3:3
- 16.08.2026 home New England Revolution 2:1
- 01.08.2026 away New York City 1:1
- 26.07.2026 away DC United 1:2
- 23.07.2026 away New England Revolution 0:0
This season: Inter Miami CF at home vs Toronto FC away
| Metric | Inter Miami CF · at home | Toronto FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 9 |
| W–D–L | 3–4–1 | 1–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.63 | 0.78 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.13 | 1.56 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 56% |
| Both teams scored | 88% | 56% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.05.2026 Toronto FC 2:4 Inter Miami CF
- 27.09.2025 Toronto FC 1:1 Inter Miami CF
- 07.04.2025 Inter Miami CF 1:1 Toronto FC
- 05.10.2024 Toronto FC 0:1 Inter Miami CF
- 18.07.2024 Inter Miami CF 3:1 Toronto FC
- 21.09.2023 Inter Miami CF 4:0 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Inter Miami CF come into this MLS meeting with a clear qualitative advantage over Toronto FC. The assessment points to the hosts being clearly stronger, with high confidence behind that view. That suggests Inter Miami CF should be able to impose more pressure and create the more dangerous attacking situations, although the available information does not indicate that Toronto FC will be unable to respond.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both teams likely to score. Toronto FC may therefore remain competitive if they can make use of the opportunities created in transition or from sustained attacking spells. At the same time, Inter Miami CF appear better placed to control the overall direction of the game and turn their territorial and attacking superiority into a winning performance. The main signal favours a home win, but the expected exchange of chances means the contest may remain active throughout rather than becoming one-sided.
What matters before kick-off
Recent Match Results
Inter Miami enter the match following a 2-2 draw with Philadelphia Union, extending a four-game winless run across all competitions. Toronto FC drew 3-3 with Charlotte FC in their previous fixture.
Suspension for Inter Miami
Inter Miami midfielder Yannick Bright is suspended for the match against Toronto FC following his red card in the previous fixture against Philadelphia Union.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.