Saint Louis City SC — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 23.08.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.1% |
| 12 | 72.9% | |
| X2 | 56.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 60.5% / 39.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 81.0% / 19.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 56.8% / 43.2% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 34.4% / 65.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 17.8% / 82.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 8.0% / 92.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 23.08.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:1
- 16.08.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 3:1
- 02.08.2026 home Real Salt Lake 1:1
- 26.07.2026 home Colorado Rapids 1:0
- 23.07.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 3:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.08.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 1:0
- 16.08.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:0
- 08.08.2026 away New England Revolution 2:0
- 02.08.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 2:0
- 26.07.2026 home Austin FC 3:0
This season: Saint Louis City SC at home vs Houston Dynamo away
| Metric | Saint Louis City SC · at home | Houston Dynamo · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 10 |
| W–D–L | 5–2–2 | 5–1–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.78 | 1.60 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.11 | 1.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 40% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 31.08.2025 Saint Louis City SC 2:3 Houston Dynamo
- 29.06.2025 Houston Dynamo 1:0 Saint Louis City SC
- 06.10.2024 Saint Louis City SC 3:0 Houston Dynamo
- 05.05.2024 Houston Dynamo 0:0 Saint Louis City SC
- 17.09.2023 Houston Dynamo 1:1 Saint Louis City SC
- 04.06.2023 Saint Louis City SC 3:0 Houston Dynamo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Saint Louis City SC enter this MLS meeting with a slight edge over Houston Dynamo, and the assessment carries a high level of confidence. That advantage does not suggest a one-sided contest, however. The expected match profile is medium-scoring, pointing to a game in which both sides should have opportunities without the outlook becoming especially open or volatile.
The possibility of both teams scoring is evenly balanced, so there is no strong basis for expecting either a clean sheet or goals at both ends. The most likely paths include a tightly contested draw, a narrow home victory, or a game decided by a single goal. Overall, Saint Louis City SC hold the clearer side of the evaluation, while Houston Dynamo remain capable of keeping the contest close. The 1X signal reflects that balance: the hosts have the stronger position, but a draw remains a meaningful part of the match outlook.
What matters before kick-off
Houston Dynamo recent result
Houston Dynamo enter the fixture following a 1-0 away victory against Vancouver Whitecaps on Wednesday, secured by a long-range goal from Franco Negri. The result placed Houston at the top of the Western Conference table.
St. Louis City SC recent result
St. Louis City SC played to a 1-1 away draw against Sporting Kansas City on Wednesday, with Eduard Löwen scoring the opening goal from a free kick.
Houston Dynamo shutout streak
Houston Dynamo enter the match against St. Louis City SC having earned five consecutive shutout victories while holding a 462-minute scoreless streak.
St. Louis City SC roster addition
St. Louis City SC added CITY2 forward Riley Lynch to the first-team roster on a short-term loan agreement ahead of their match against Houston Dynamo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.