San Jose Earthquakes — Los Angeles Galaxy: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 76.5% | |
| X2 | 48.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes have a slight edge over Los Angeles Galaxy in what looks like a closely contested MLS meeting. The assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be decisive. That points toward a match in which San Jose Earthquakes may be better placed to avoid defeat, while Los Angeles Galaxy remain capable of competing throughout.
The attacking outlook is stronger than the result outlook. Both teams are likely to score, and the game is expected to produce several goals rather than develop into a cautious, low-event contest. The listed scorelines include balanced draws as well as a narrow home win, reinforcing the view that the match could remain open until late. San Jose Earthquakes appear marginally better positioned, but Los Angeles Galaxy should have enough attacking threat to make this an even and competitive encounter.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.