San Jose Earthquakes — Los Angeles Galaxy: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.5% |
| 12 | 76.5% | |
| X2 | 48.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.1% / 11.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.6% / 31.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.2% / 52.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.2% / 71.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Orlando City 0:4
- 24.05.2026 away Portland Timbers 3:1
- 17.05.2026 home FC Dallas 2:3
- 14.05.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:3
- 10.05.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 1:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home St. Louis City 1:3
- 18.07.2026 home Los Angeles FC 0:3
- 24.05.2026 home Houston Dynamo 1:1
- 17.05.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:0
- 14.05.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:3
This season: San Jose Earthquakes at home vs Los Angeles Galaxy away
| Metric | San Jose Earthquakes · at home | Los Angeles Galaxy · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 4–1–3 | 3–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 88% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 29.06.2025 San Jose Earthquakes 1:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 29.05.2025 Los Angeles Galaxy 0:1 San Jose Earthquakes
- 30.06.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 0:3 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 22.04.2024 Los Angeles Galaxy 4:3 San Jose Earthquakes
- 03.03.2024 San Jose Earthquakes 1:3 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 31.08.2023 San Jose Earthquakes 2:3 Los Angeles Galaxy
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes have a slight edge over Los Angeles Galaxy in what looks like a closely contested MLS meeting. The assessment gives the hosts a high-confidence advantage, although the margin between the teams is not expected to be decisive. That points toward a match in which San Jose Earthquakes may be better placed to avoid defeat, while Los Angeles Galaxy remain capable of competing throughout.
The attacking outlook is stronger than the result outlook. Both teams are likely to score, and the game is expected to produce several goals rather than develop into a cautious, low-event contest. The listed scorelines include balanced draws as well as a narrow home win, reinforcing the view that the match could remain open until late. San Jose Earthquakes appear marginally better positioned, but Los Angeles Galaxy should have enough attacking threat to make this an even and competitive encounter.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.