Houston Dynamo — Austin FC: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home DC United 1:1
- 24.05.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:1
- 17.05.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 1:0
- 14.05.2026 away Real Salt Lake 0:3
- 11.05.2026 away Los Angeles FC 4:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Seattle Sounders 3:1
- 23.05.2026 away St. Louis City 0:3
- 17.05.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 1:2
- 14.05.2026 away San Diego FC 0:5
- 11.05.2026 away Minnesota United 2:2
This season: Houston Dynamo at home vs Austin FC away
| Metric | Houston Dynamo · at home | Austin FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 5–1–2 | 0–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.88 | 3.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 26.04.2026 Austin FC 2:0 Houston Dynamo
- 10.08.2025 Austin FC 2:2 Houston Dynamo
- 27.04.2025 Houston Dynamo 2:0 Austin FC
- 22.09.2024 Austin FC 0:1 Houston Dynamo
- 16.05.2024 Austin FC 1:0 Houston Dynamo
- 21.04.2024 Houston Dynamo 0:1 Austin FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Houston Dynamo have a slight edge over Austin FC in this MLS meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment leans toward the home side, but it does not establish a strong separation between the teams. Houston Dynamo may be able to use home advantage to control more of the game, while Austin FC remain capable of keeping the contest balanced.
A medium-scoring match is the most suitable expectation, with both teams scoring difficult to separate. The main projected scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0, which reflects the narrow margin between a draw and a Houston Dynamo victory. Austin FC's prospects should not be discounted, but the overall signal gives the hosts the more favorable position. The game is likely to be decided by small moments rather than sustained dominance from either side.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.