Houston Dynamo — Austin FC: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 80.8% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 53.9% / 46.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 78.5% / 21.5% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 54.4% / 45.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.1% / 67.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.1% / 83.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.0% / 93.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Houston Dynamo have a slight edge over Austin FC in this MLS meeting, although the low confidence level points to a closely contested match rather than a clear mismatch. The available assessment leans toward the home side, but it does not establish a strong separation between the teams. Houston Dynamo may be able to use home advantage to control more of the game, while Austin FC remain capable of keeping the contest balanced.
A medium-scoring match is the most suitable expectation, with both teams scoring difficult to separate. The main projected scorelines are 1-1, 1-0, and 2-0, which reflects the narrow margin between a draw and a Houston Dynamo victory. Austin FC's prospects should not be discounted, but the overall signal gives the hosts the more favorable position. The game is likely to be decided by small moments rather than sustained dominance from either side.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.