DC United — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.3% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
DC United have a slight edge over Toronto FC in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the teams. The home side may be better placed to control the match, but Toronto FC remain capable of making the game competitive, particularly if they can stay organized and take advantage of transitions.
A medium-scoring match is the most plausible overall profile. Both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the game could develop in either direction depending on which side converts its chances more efficiently. The most likely scorelines point to a narrow DC United win or a draw, with 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 all fitting the assessment. Overall, the balance of the prediction favors DC United avoiding defeat, but Toronto FC have a realistic opportunity to take something from the match.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.