DC United — Toronto FC: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.3% |
| 12 | 74.3% | |
| X2 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 55.8% / 44.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.3% / 6.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 76.8% / 23.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 52.4% / 47.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.2% / 69.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 14.8% / 85.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.3% / 93.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away Houston Dynamo 1:1
- 24.05.2026 home CF Montreal 4:4
- 17.05.2026 home St. Louis City 1:1
- 14.05.2026 home Chicago Fire 1:3
- 10.05.2026 away Nashville SC 2:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away New England Revolution 0:0
- 17.07.2026 away CF Montreal 0:0
- 24.05.2026 away Chicago Fire 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Charlotte 1:3
- 09.05.2026 home Inter Miami 2:4
This season: DC United at home vs Toronto FC away
| Metric | DC United · at home | Toronto FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| W–D–L | 2–2–3 | 1–2–4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.57 | 0.71 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.29 | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 10.05.2025 Toronto FC 2:0 DC United
- 23.02.2025 DC United 2:2 Toronto FC
- 01.09.2024 Toronto FC 1:3 DC United
- 02.06.2024 DC United 2:2 Toronto FC
- 28.05.2023 Toronto FC 2:1 DC United
- 26.02.2023 DC United 3:2 Toronto FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
DC United have a slight edge over Toronto FC in this MLS meeting, although the moderate confidence indicates a contest with limited separation between the teams. The home side may be better placed to control the match, but Toronto FC remain capable of making the game competitive, particularly if they can stay organized and take advantage of transitions.
A medium-scoring match is the most plausible overall profile. Both teams scoring is finely balanced, so the game could develop in either direction depending on which side converts its chances more efficiently. The most likely scorelines point to a narrow DC United win or a draw, with 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1 all fitting the assessment. Overall, the balance of the prediction favors DC United avoiding defeat, but Toronto FC have a realistic opportunity to take something from the match.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.