Columbus Crew — FC Cincinnati: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.9% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home New York City 1:2
- 24.05.2026 home Atlanta Utd 2:0
- 17.05.2026 away Philadelphia Union 1:1
- 14.05.2026 away New York Red Bulls 2:3
- 10.05.2026 away New York City 0:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Vancouver Whitecaps 4:3
- 24.05.2026 home Orlando City 6:2
- 17.05.2026 away San Diego FC 3:3
- 14.05.2026 home Inter Miami 3:5
- 10.05.2026 away Charlotte 2:2
This season: Columbus Crew at home vs FC Cincinnati away
| Metric | Columbus Crew · at home | FC Cincinnati · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–3 | 1–4–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 88% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 08.11.2025 FC Cincinnati 2:1 Columbus Crew
- 02.11.2025 Columbus Crew 4:0 FC Cincinnati
- 27.10.2025 FC Cincinnati 1:0 Columbus Crew
- 13.07.2025 FC Cincinnati 2:4 Columbus Crew
- 18.05.2025 Columbus Crew 1:1 FC Cincinnati
- 15.09.2024 FC Cincinnati 0:0 Columbus Crew
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Columbus Crew welcome FC Cincinnati in an MLS meeting that projects to be closely contested, with a moderate lean toward the home side. The available assessment gives Columbus Crew a slight edge, while the overall outlook points to an open match rather than a cautious encounter. Both teams are considered likely to score, which should keep the game competitive across the full ninety minutes.
FC Cincinnati have enough attacking potential in this matchup to make the home advantage far from decisive, and Columbus Crew will need to manage the visitors’ threat while maintaining their own attacking rhythm. The range of likely scorelines includes a draw as well as narrow outcomes for either side, reinforcing the expectation of a finely balanced contest. On the available indicators, the hosts appear marginally better placed, but the gap is limited and FC Cincinnati remain capable of taking something from the match.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.