Columbus Crew — FC Cincinnati: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.9% |
| 12 | 75.7% | |
| X2 | 54.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.4% / 33.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.6% / 4.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 85.7% / 14.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.2% / 34.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.2% / 56.8% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.8% / 75.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.4% / 87.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Columbus Crew welcome FC Cincinnati in an MLS meeting that projects to be closely contested, with a moderate lean toward the home side. The available assessment gives Columbus Crew a slight edge, while the overall outlook points to an open match rather than a cautious encounter. Both teams are considered likely to score, which should keep the game competitive across the full ninety minutes.
FC Cincinnati have enough attacking potential in this matchup to make the home advantage far from decisive, and Columbus Crew will need to manage the visitors’ threat while maintaining their own attacking rhythm. The range of likely scorelines includes a draw as well as narrow outcomes for either side, reinforcing the expectation of a finely balanced contest. On the available indicators, the hosts appear marginally better placed, but the gap is limited and FC Cincinnati remain capable of taking something from the match.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.