Philadelphia Union — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.4% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home New York Red Bulls 3:1
- 25.05.2026 away Inter Miami 4:6
- 17.05.2026 home Columbus Crew 1:1
- 14.05.2026 away Orlando City 3:4
- 10.05.2026 away New England Revolution 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away Austin FC 1:3
- 17.07.2026 home Portland Timbers 1:5
- 25.05.2026 away Los Angeles FC 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 0:2
- 14.05.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 3:2
This season: Philadelphia Union at home vs Seattle Sounders away
| Metric | Philadelphia Union · at home | Seattle Sounders · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 1–3–3 | 3–2–3 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.86 | 0.75 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 01.05.2024 Philadelphia Union 2:3 Seattle Sounders
- 19.05.2019 Philadelphia Union 0:0 Seattle Sounders
- 20.09.2018 Seattle Sounders 0:1 Philadelphia Union
- 01.10.2017 Philadelphia Union 2:0 Seattle Sounders
- 17.04.2016 Seattle Sounders 2:1 Philadelphia Union
- 25.06.2015 Philadelphia Union 1:0 Seattle Sounders
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Philadelphia Union host Seattle Sounders in an MLS meeting that projects to be open and competitive. The assessment gives Philadelphia Union a slight edge, with the home side favoured to make better use of home advantage. Seattle Sounders remain a credible threat, and the gap between the teams is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest.
The match is expected to feature chances at both ends, with both teams likely to score. That points towards a high-scoring game, although the possible outcomes still include a draw as well as a Philadelphia Union victory. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0, reflecting a narrow advantage for the hosts alongside a realistic prospect of Seattle Sounders finding the net. Overall, Philadelphia Union have the stronger position in the preview, but the game should remain competitive through the final stages.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.