Philadelphia Union — Seattle Sounders: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Result
We predicted: BTTS · Verdict: Miss
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 78.4% |
| 12 | 76.6% | |
| X2 | 45.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 62.1% / 37.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.1% / 4.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.4% / 15.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.9% / 37.1% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.7% / 59.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.7% / 77.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.0% / 89.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Philadelphia Union host Seattle Sounders in an MLS meeting that projects to be open and competitive. The assessment gives Philadelphia Union a slight edge, with the home side favoured to make better use of home advantage. Seattle Sounders remain a credible threat, and the gap between the teams is not large enough to suggest a one-sided contest.
The match is expected to feature chances at both ends, with both teams likely to score. That points towards a high-scoring game, although the possible outcomes still include a draw as well as a Philadelphia Union victory. The most plausible scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0, reflecting a narrow advantage for the hosts alongside a realistic prospect of Seattle Sounders finding the net. Overall, Philadelphia Union have the stronger position in the preview, but the game should remain competitive through the final stages.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.