New York City FC — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Result
We predicted: BTTS · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.8% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 64.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New York City FC and Chicago Fire appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That balance should make the contest difficult to separate, particularly if both teams are able to impose their attacking ideas during different phases of the match.
The main expectation is for an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to score. New York City FC may look to use home advantage to take initiative, while Chicago Fire have enough attacking potential in this assessment to remain competitive away from home. The most plausible outcomes include a draw or a narrow victory for either side, with a one-goal margin appearing more consistent with the evenly matched outlook than a decisive result.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.