New York City FC — Chicago Fire: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.8% |
| 12 | 74.6% | |
| X2 | 64.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 65.9% / 34.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.0% / 5.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.9% / 15.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 63.4% / 36.6% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 41.3% / 58.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 23.2% / 76.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 11.3% / 88.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away Columbus Crew 2:1
- 24.05.2026 away Nashville SC 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:1
- 14.05.2026 away Charlotte 1:0
- 10.05.2026 home Columbus Crew 3:0
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away Inter Miami 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home Toronto FC 2:1
- 16.05.2026 away CF Montreal 2:0
- 14.05.2026 away DC United 3:1
- 09.05.2026 home New York Red Bulls 1:3
This season: New York City FC at home vs Chicago Fire away
| Metric | New York City FC · at home | Chicago Fire · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 8 | 7 |
| W–D–L | 3–2–3 | 3–2–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.38 | 1.86 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.63 | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 71% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 71% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 14.09.2025 Chicago Fire 1:3 New York City FC
- 25.05.2025 New York City FC 3:1 Chicago Fire
- 25.08.2024 New York City FC 2:2 Chicago Fire
- 14.07.2024 Chicago Fire 0:0 New York City FC
- 21.10.2023 New York City FC 1:0 Chicago Fire
- 05.03.2023 Chicago Fire 1:1 New York City FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New York City FC and Chicago Fire appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clear overall advantage. That balance should make the contest difficult to separate, particularly if both teams are able to impose their attacking ideas during different phases of the match.
The main expectation is for an open, high-scoring game in which both teams are likely to score. New York City FC may look to use home advantage to take initiative, while Chicago Fire have enough attacking potential in this assessment to remain competitive away from home. The most plausible outcomes include a draw or a narrow victory for either side, with a one-goal margin appearing more consistent with the evenly matched outlook than a decisive result.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.