New England Revolution — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.9% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.5% / 41.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
New England Revolution have a slight but credible edge over Atlanta United FC in this MLS matchup. The assessment points toward a medium-scoring contest, with the home side better placed to control the overall balance. New England may look to use its home advantage to apply pressure and create the clearer chances, while Atlanta United FC should remain capable of making the game competitive.
The scoring outlook is less decisive on whether both teams will find the net, so the match could develop in several ways. A tight New England win, such as 1-0 or 2-1, fits the overall assessment, while 1-1 is also a plausible scenario if Atlanta United FC can limit the hosts' control. Overall, the hosts are clearly stronger in the prediction, but the margin is not wide enough to rule out a draw.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.