New England Revolution — Atlanta United FC: Win probabilities, 25.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.9% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 52.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.5% / 41.5% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.0% / 7.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.8% / 20.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.2% / 44.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.8% / 67.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.3% / 92.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 25.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Toronto FC 0:0
- 24.05.2026 away Charlotte 0:1
- 17.05.2026 home Minnesota United 2:1
- 14.05.2026 home Nashville SC 0:3
- 10.05.2026 home Philadelphia Union 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 away Charlotte 2:2
- 18.07.2026 away Nashville SC 0:1
- 24.05.2026 away Columbus Crew 0:2
- 17.05.2026 away Orlando City 1:1
- 10.05.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 1:2
This season: New England Revolution at home vs Atlanta United FC away
| Metric | New England Revolution · at home | Atlanta United FC · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–1 | 1–2–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.89 | 0.63 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.78 | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 23.04.2026 Atlanta United FC 1:2 New England Revolution
- 28.09.2025 New England Revolution 2:0 Atlanta United FC
- 12.04.2025 Atlanta United FC 0:1 New England Revolution
- 04.07.2024 New England Revolution 2:1 Atlanta United FC
- 10.03.2024 Atlanta United FC 4:1 New England Revolution
- 13.07.2023 New England Revolution 2:1 Atlanta United FC
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
New England Revolution have a slight but credible edge over Atlanta United FC in this MLS matchup. The assessment points toward a medium-scoring contest, with the home side better placed to control the overall balance. New England may look to use its home advantage to apply pressure and create the clearer chances, while Atlanta United FC should remain capable of making the game competitive.
The scoring outlook is less decisive on whether both teams will find the net, so the match could develop in several ways. A tight New England win, such as 1-0 or 2-1, fits the overall assessment, while 1-1 is also a plausible scenario if Atlanta United FC can limit the hosts' control. Overall, the hosts are clearly stronger in the prediction, but the margin is not wide enough to rule out a draw.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.