Saint Louis City SC — Colorado Rapids: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: 1X · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.2% |
| 12 | 74.5% | |
| X2 | 50.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 57.2% / 42.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.6% / 6.4% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 79.1% / 20.9% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 55.0% / 45.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 32.6% / 67.4% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 16.5% / 83.5% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 7.2% / 92.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Saint Louis City SC host Colorado Rapids in an MLS meeting where the home side holds a slight but credible edge. The overall outlook points to a medium-scoring match, with Saint Louis City SC having enough advantage at home to make them the more likely team to control the contest. Colorado Rapids remain capable of competing closely, so the balance is not expected to be heavily one-sided.
The scoring picture is less clear. Both teams scoring is effectively a coin flip, which leaves several plausible match patterns: a tight Saint Louis City SC win, a narrow home victory with Colorado Rapids finding the net, or a level contest. The most representative scorelines are 1-1, 2-1, and 1-0. With the home side favoured but the margin limited, the 1X outlook fits a match in which Saint Louis City SC are better positioned to avoid defeat than Colorado Rapids.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.