Match intelligence

Minnesota United FC — Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026

League: MLS (USA) · Kick-off:

Full time

Final result

✓ Prediction hit
Minnesota United FC0
:
0Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Locked signal X2 Probability 71.7% Verdict Hit
Mathematical model

Win probabilities

Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin

Odds updated
W1 28.3% Home win Minnesota United FC
X 23.7% Draw
W2 48.0% Away win Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Market matrix

Markets

Double chance
1276.3%
Both teams to score
Yes64.7%
Totals 2.5
Over63.8%

All calculated markets

MarketSelectionProbability
Double chance1X52.0%
1276.3%
X271.7%
Both teams to scoreYes/No64.7% / 35.3%
Totals 0.5 Over/Under 95.6% / 4.4%
Totals 1.5 Over/Under 84.6% / 15.4%
Totals 2.5 Over/Under 63.8% / 36.2%
Totals 3.5 Over/Under 41.7% / 58.3%
Totals 4.5 Over/Under 23.5% / 76.5%
Totals 5.5 Over/Under 11.6% / 88.4%
Goal distribution model

Score probability heatmap

Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally

Minnesota United FC × Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0 4.4%
0:1 6.4%
0:2 6.6%
0:3 4.1%
0:4 1.9%
0:5 0.7%
1
1:0 4.6%
1:1 10.5%
1:2 9.3%
1:3 5.8%
1:4 2.7%
1:5 1.0%
2
2:0 3.7%
2:1 7.0%
2:2 6.5%
2:3 4.1%
2:4 1.9%
2:5 0.7%
3
3:0 1.7%
3:1 3.3%
3:2 3.1%
3:3 1.9%
3:4 0.9%
3:5 0.3%
4
4:0 0.6%
4:1 1.2%
4:2 1.1%
4:3 0.7%
4:4 0.3%
4:5 0.1%
5
5:0 0.2%
5:1 0.3%
5:2 0.3%
5:3 0.2%
5:4 0.1%
5:5 0.0%
Most likely scores
1:110.5%
1:29.3%
2:17.0%
0:26.6%
2:26.5%
Match data

Form and head-to-head

Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 23.07.2026 away Sporting Kansas City 1:2
  • 23.05.2026 home Real Salt Lake 1:1
  • 17.05.2026 away New England Revolution 1:2
  • 14.05.2026 home Colorado Rapids 0:1
  • 11.05.2026 home Austin FC 2:2

Last 5 matches · latest first

  • 23.07.2026 away FC Cincinnati 3:4
  • 24.05.2026 away San Diego FC 4:2
  • 17.05.2026 away Houston Dynamo 0:1
  • 14.05.2026 away FC Dallas 3:2
  • 10.05.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:1

This season: Minnesota United FC at home vs Vancouver Whitecaps FC away

Metric Minnesota United FC · at home Vancouver Whitecaps FC · away
Matches77
W–D–L2–3–23–2–2
Goals scored per match0.862.29
Goals conceded per match0.711.71
Over 2.5 goals14%57%
Both teams scored29%86%

Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings

Minnesota United FC wins1
Draws1
Vancouver Whitecaps FC wins4
Goals per match3.33
Both teams scored3/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
  • 15.03.2026 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 6:0 Minnesota United FC
  • 29.05.2025 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 0:0 Minnesota United FC
  • 27.04.2025 Minnesota United FC 1:3 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
  • 06.10.2024 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 0:1 Minnesota United FC
  • 04.07.2024 Minnesota United FC 1:3 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
  • 07.05.2023 Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3:2 Minnesota United FC

Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.

✦
AI analysis

Match preview

Model · GPT 5.6 Luna

Minnesota United FC host Vancouver Whitecaps FC in an MLS meeting that points toward an open and competitive contest. The assessment gives Vancouver Whitecaps FC a slight edge, although the moderate confidence suggests that the difference between the teams is not decisive. Minnesota United FC should still have a realistic route into the match, particularly if they can take advantage of home conditions and maintain pressure in the attacking phases.

The game is expected to be high-scoring, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes the balance more difficult to predict than a straightforward away selection, as Minnesota United FC have the potential to keep the contest close even if Vancouver Whitecaps FC appear marginally better positioned overall. A draw remains a credible outcome, while a narrow Vancouver victory is also consistent with the available indicators. The main expectation is therefore an entertaining match with opportunities at both ends and only a limited separation between the sides.

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How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.

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