Portland Timbers — Real Salt Lake: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: BTTS · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 63.3% |
| 12 | 75.0% | |
| X2 | 61.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.2% / 29.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.2% / 11.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.5% / 31.5% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 47.1% / 52.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 28.1% / 71.9% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.7% / 85.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Portland Timbers and Real Salt Lake appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear advantage, so the match may be shaped by small details rather than a sustained dominance from either team. Portland will have home conditions in their favour, while Real Salt Lake should enter the contest with a realistic opportunity to take control during periods of open play.
The overall scoring outlook is high, with both teams likely to find the net. That points toward an active match in which defensive stability could be tested, particularly if the game becomes stretched. A draw is a credible possibility, but the balance of the matchup also leaves room for either side to edge a close contest. Expect an open, competitive encounter rather than a game defined by one team’s clear superiority.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.