Los Angeles FC — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.1% |
| 12 | 86.2% | |
| X2 | 23.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.7% / 2.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.3% / 11.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 26.07.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Real Salt Lake 3:1
- 18.07.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 3:0
- 25.05.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:0
- 18.05.2026 away Nashville SC 2:3
- 14.05.2026 away St. Louis City 1:2
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 23.07.2026 home Minnesota United 2:1
- 17.07.2026 away St. Louis City 2:3
- 24.05.2026 home New York Red Bulls 1:2
- 17.05.2026 away Austin FC 2:1
- 14.05.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 3:1
This season: Los Angeles FC at home vs Sporting Kansas City away
| Metric | Los Angeles FC · at home | Sporting Kansas City · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 9 | 8 |
| W–D–L | 6–1–2 | 2–0–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.00 | 0.88 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.00 | 3.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 50% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 09.06.2025 Los Angeles FC 3:1 Sporting Kansas City
- 23.03.2025 Sporting Kansas City 0:2 Los Angeles FC
- 06.10.2024 Sporting Kansas City 0:3 Los Angeles FC
- 10.03.2024 Los Angeles FC 0:0 Sporting Kansas City
- 18.06.2023 Sporting Kansas City 1:2 Los Angeles FC
- 18.05.2023 Los Angeles FC 1:1 Sporting Kansas City
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Los Angeles FC enter this MLS fixture against Sporting Kansas City with a clear advantage in the overall assessment. The hosts are viewed as clearly stronger, and the high confidence attached to that reading suggests that Los Angeles FC should control more of the match, particularly through sustained pressure and territorial dominance. Sporting Kansas City will need to remain compact and disciplined if they are to prevent the home side from creating repeated opportunities.
The game is also projected to have an open, high-scoring character rather than a cautious rhythm. That points to an encounter in which Los Angeles FC may have several chances to break through, while Sporting Kansas City could still find moments in transition or from periods of pressure. The expectation that both teams scoring is essentially balanced adds some uncertainty to the exact shape of the contest, but it does not remove the hosts' overall edge. A home win is the strongest scenario, with a controlled victory or a more open success both consistent with the available signals.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.