Los Angeles FC — Sporting Kansas City: Win probabilities, 26.07.2026
Result
We predicted: X1 · Verdict: Hit
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 90.1% |
| 12 | 86.2% | |
| X2 | 23.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 56.4% / 43.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 97.7% / 2.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 88.3% / 11.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.6% / 28.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.7% / 49.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 31.4% / 68.6% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 17.1% / 82.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Los Angeles FC enter this MLS fixture against Sporting Kansas City with a clear advantage in the overall assessment. The hosts are viewed as clearly stronger, and the high confidence attached to that reading suggests that Los Angeles FC should control more of the match, particularly through sustained pressure and territorial dominance. Sporting Kansas City will need to remain compact and disciplined if they are to prevent the home side from creating repeated opportunities.
The game is also projected to have an open, high-scoring character rather than a cautious rhythm. That points to an encounter in which Los Angeles FC may have several chances to break through, while Sporting Kansas City could still find moments in transition or from periods of pressure. The expectation that both teams scoring is essentially balanced adds some uncertainty to the exact shape of the contest, but it does not remove the hosts' overall edge. A home win is the strongest scenario, with a controlled victory or a more open success both consistent with the available signals.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.