San Jose Earthquakes — Los Angeles FC: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 52.0% |
| 12 | 76.3% | |
| X2 | 71.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.1% / 32.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.9% / 4.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.6% / 13.4% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.6% / 33.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.9% / 55.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 26.2% / 73.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.4% / 86.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 3.00 → now 3.30 |
| W2 | was 2.20 → now 2.00 |
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes host Los Angeles FC in an MLS meeting that points toward an open and competitive contest. The available assessment gives Los Angeles FC a slight edge, although the moderate confidence indicates that the difference between the sides is not decisive. San Jose Earthquakes should have opportunities to threaten, particularly in a match expected to feature an active attacking rhythm.
Both teams are likely to score, which makes a low-event game less likely. The projected scorelines include 1-1, 1-2 and 2-1, reflecting a relatively balanced matchup with room for the result to move in either direction. Los Angeles FC appear marginally better placed to avoid defeat, while San Jose Earthquakes remain capable of producing enough attacking threat to keep the contest close. The overall signal therefore favours the visitors slightly, but the draw remains a credible outcome.
What matters before kick-off
LAFC Player Availability
Thomas Hasal (arm) and Timothy Tillman (leg) are ruled out for Los Angeles FC ahead of their match against San Jose Earthquakes.
San Jose Earthquakes Host LAFC at Levi's Stadium
San Jose Earthquakes host Los Angeles FC at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, entering the clash on a four-match unbeaten streak.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.