San Jose Earthquakes — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 67.3% |
| 12 | 73.1% | |
| X2 | 59.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 64.2% / 35.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.0% / 6.0% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.7% / 16.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 60.7% / 39.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.4% / 61.6% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 20.8% / 79.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 9.8% / 90.2% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.45 → now 2.38 |
| W2 | was 2.80 → now 2.90 |
Match preview
San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment points to a moderate level of confidence, with neither side holding a clearly defined advantage. That suggests a contest likely to be shaped by small margins, tactical discipline, and how effectively each team converts its chances.
The match is projected to be medium-scoring, and both teams are likely to find the net. A draw such as 1:1 is a plausible scenario, although narrow wins for either San Jose Earthquakes or Houston Dynamo also fit the overall outlook. The market signal gives some protection to the home side, but it does not remove the possibility of a Houston Dynamo result. Overall, this looks like a balanced fixture in which the game could remain competitive until the final stages.
What matters before kick-off
Felipe Andrade returns for Houston
Houston Dynamo defender Felipe Andrade is available to face the San Jose Earthquakes after serving a one-match suspension for yellow card accumulation.
Second meeting in two weeks
This match marks the second regular season encounter between the San Jose Earthquakes and Houston Dynamo in two weeks, following a 0-0 draw on August 29.
Guilherme key to Houston attack
Houston Dynamo attacker Guilherme has contributed to 21 of the team's 32 MLS goals this season, accounting for 65.6% of their total league goals.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.