Real Salt Lake — New York City FC: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 73.3% |
| 12 | 74.8% | |
| X2 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.9% / 36.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.7% / 5.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 84.3% / 15.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 62.3% / 37.7% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 40.1% / 59.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 22.2% / 77.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.7% / 89.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.91 → now 2.00 |
| W2 | was 3.80 → now 3.50 |
Match preview
Real Salt Lake have a slight edge ahead of their MLS meeting with New York City FC, with the overall assessment pointing toward the home side as the stronger of the two teams. The confidence in that lean is high, although the balance still leaves room for a draw, making the home-or-draw scenario the more cautious interpretation.
The match is expected to have an open, high-scoring character, with both Real Salt Lake and New York City FC likely to find the net. That points to a contest in which attacking exchanges could shape the outcome rather than a tightly controlled defensive battle. Real Salt Lake’s home advantage gives them the clearest route to victory, but New York City FC remain capable of applying pressure and keeping the game competitive. A narrow home win or a draw fits the available signals better than a comfortable result for either side.
What matters before kick-off
Sergi Solans Returns for Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake forward Sergi Solans, who leads the club's 2026 scoring charts, returns to availability after missing the midweek match against Houston Dynamo due to illness.
Real Salt Lake Looking to End Winless Run
Real Salt Lake aims to end a 10-game winless streak in MLS play following a 2-1 midweek loss to Houston Dynamo on September 9.
Real Salt Lake's Home Record vs New York City FC
Real Salt Lake holds a 10-2-3 record at home across all competitions in 2026 and remains undefeated at home all-time against New York City FC, with three wins and one draw in four prior visits.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.