Colorado Rapids — CF Montreal: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 81.6% |
| 12 | 77.4% | |
| X2 | 41.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 58.9% / 41.1% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.8% / 5.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.3% / 16.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 1.73 → now 1.65 |
| W2 | was 4.50 → now 5.00 |
Match preview
Colorado Rapids have a moderate slight edge over CF Montreal in this MLS matchup. The outlook does not point to a one-sided contest, however, with the available score projections including a draw as well as narrow home victories. That suggests Colorado Rapids may be better placed to take control, but CF Montreal remain capable of keeping the game competitive.
The scoring assessment points toward an open match in which both teams are likely to score. At the same time, the Under signal indicates that the expected attacking activity should not automatically be interpreted as a runaway game, leaving room for a relatively controlled scoreline despite chances at both ends. A balanced draw is therefore a credible possibility, while a narrow Colorado Rapids win is the more favourable overall direction. CF Montreal's prospects will depend on converting their opportunities and limiting the hosts' ability to turn their slight advantage into decisive pressure.
What matters before kick-off
Recent results of both teams
Colorado Rapids enter the match following a 1-1 away draw against Austin FC, featuring a goal from Paxten Aaronson. CF Montréal fell 2-1 at home to Charlotte FC, extending their winless run in MLS to five matches.
Colorado Rapids home winning streak
Colorado Rapids have won five consecutive MLS home matches, recording a shutout in all five victories. Five consecutive home clean sheets tied a club record set back in 2004.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.