San Diego FC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 58.4% |
| 12 | 75.5% | |
| X2 | 66.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.4% / 30.6% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.8% / 4.2% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.7% / 12.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.1% / 31.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.5% / 53.5% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.6% / 72.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 14.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Orlando City 0:1
- 30.08.2026 home Los Angeles Galaxy 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home Colorado Rapids 3:0
- 20.08.2026 away Portland Timbers 1:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 5:0
- 06.09.2026 home CF Montreal 2:0
- 30.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 3:1
- 23.08.2026 away Austin FC 1:1
- 20.08.2026 home Inter Miami 2:2
This season: San Diego FC at home vs Philadelphia Union away
| Metric | San Diego FC · at home | Philadelphia Union · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–4 | 3–2–7 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.46 | 1.83 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.46 | 2.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 85% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 83% |
Head-to-head
No previous meetings found in the available data.
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
San Diego FC and Philadelphia Union appear evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, suggesting that the match could be decided by small differences in execution rather than a pronounced gap in quality. With a moderate level of confidence, the most balanced expectation is a competitive contest in which both teams have credible opportunities to influence the result.
The scoring outlook points toward an open game, with both teams likely to score. That makes a cautious, low-event approach less likely, although the available information does not indicate which side will control possession or create the clearer chances. Possible scorelines include a draw as well as narrow victories for either team, reinforcing the view that this is a finely balanced fixture. The central analytical signal is therefore a high-scoring match with goals at both ends, rather than a strong preference for San Diego FC or Philadelphia Union.
What matters before kick-off
First-Ever Head-to-Head Meeting
The match marks the inaugural meeting between San Diego FC and Philadelphia Union in MLS history.
Strong Recent Result for Philadelphia Union
Prior to their trip west, Philadelphia Union secured a dominant 5-0 victory over FC Cincinnati in MLS action.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.