San Diego FC — Philadelphia Union: Win probabilities, 14.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 60.1% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 64.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 67.6% / 32.4% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.5% / 4.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.2% / 13.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.6% / 34.4% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.7% / 56.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.2% / 74.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.7% / 87.3% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.55 → now 2.70 |
| W2 | was 2.55 → now 2.40 |
Match preview
San Diego FC and Philadelphia Union look evenly matched ahead of their MLS meeting. The available assessment gives neither side a clear overall advantage, pointing instead to a contest that could remain competitive through much of the match. With a moderate confidence level, the outlook is balanced rather than strongly tilted toward either team.
The main expectation is an open game with opportunities at both ends. The scoring profile points toward a high-scoring encounter, while both teams are considered likely to find the net. That makes the both-teams-to-score market the clearest signal in the assessment, although the balance between San Diego FC and Philadelphia Union leaves several possible match patterns open. A draw or a narrow win for either side would fit the overall picture.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.