Chicago Fire — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.9% |
| 12 | 75.9% | |
| X2 | 48.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.3% / 4.7% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.7% / 13.3% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 66.1% / 33.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 44.3% / 55.7% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 25.7% / 74.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 13.0% / 87.0% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Chicago Fire enter this MLS meeting with a slight edge over New England Revolution. The assessment points toward a competitive contest rather than a one-sided match, but the home side has the stronger overall signal. Home advantage may be important in a fixture where the margin between the teams appears limited, with the main expectation favoring Chicago Fire against defeat.
The game is projected to have an open, high-scoring character, and both Chicago Fire and New England Revolution are likely to find the net. That creates several plausible pathways, including a balanced 1:1 draw, while 2:1 and 2:0 also fit the broader assessment. New England Revolution should still carry an attacking threat, so Chicago Fire may need to manage the match carefully rather than rely solely on territorial control. Overall, the outlook gives Chicago Fire the clearer side of the balance, but the scoring profile suggests a match with meaningful chances at both ends.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.