Chicago Fire — New England Revolution: Win probabilities, 13.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.2% |
| 12 | 75.6% | |
| X2 | 53.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 69.0% / 31.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.7% / 4.3% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.9% / 12.1% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 68.2% / 31.8% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.7% / 53.3% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.7% / 72.3% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.4% / 85.6% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 13.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 home Inter Miami 1:1
- 06.09.2026 away Toronto FC 4:4
- 29.08.2026 away Seattle Sounders 2:2
- 23.08.2026 away New York Red Bulls 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away Orlando City 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 10.09.2026 away New York City 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Los Angeles Galaxy 1:2
- 30.08.2026 away Columbus Crew 3:1
- 23.08.2026 home New York City 1:1
- 20.08.2026 away DC United 3:0
This season: Chicago Fire at home vs New England Revolution away
| Metric | Chicago Fire · at home | New England Revolution · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 11 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 7–1–3 | 4–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.91 | 1.42 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.09 | 1.58 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 64% | 75% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 18.10.2025 New England Revolution 2:2 Chicago Fire
- 07.09.2025 Chicago Fire 3:2 New England Revolution
- 05.05.2024 Chicago Fire 0:1 New England Revolution
- 23.03.2024 New England Revolution 1:1 Chicago Fire
- 24.09.2023 Chicago Fire 2:2 New England Revolution
- 28.05.2023 New England Revolution 3:3 Chicago Fire
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Chicago Fire have a slight edge over New England Revolution in this MLS meeting, although the assessment is moderate rather than decisive. The home side are favoured to avoid defeat, reflected by the 1X signal, but the balance of the matchup leaves room for a competitive contest. New England Revolution remain capable of causing problems, particularly if they can exploit the open spaces that often appear in a high-scoring game.
The scoring outlook points toward an active match, with both teams likely to find the net. That makes a narrow Chicago Fire advantage one possible scenario, while a draw or a closely fought New England Revolution victory also remains within the range of outcomes indicated by the available signals. Overall, the clearest expectation is an entertaining and relatively open encounter rather than a controlled, low-tempo game.
What matters before kick-off
Team availability news
According to the official MLS status report, Chicago Fire will be without André Franco and Mbekezeli Mbokazi due to lower body injuries. New England Revolution are ruled without forward Leonardo Campana for the same reason.
Schedule context and recent results
Chicago Fire enter the match following a 1-1 midweek draw against Inter Miami CF at Soldier Field. New England Revolution are concluding a four-game road stint after securing a 2-1 victory away at New York City FC.
Eastern Conference standings context
The two teams enter the fixture separated by just one point near the top of the Eastern Conference standings, with New England sitting third on 40 points and Chicago holding fourth place with 39 points.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.