San Diego FC — Houston Dynamo: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
44.7%
Home win
San Diego FC
X
24.9%
Draw
W2
30.4%
Away win
Houston Dynamo
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1275.1%
Both teams to score
Yes63.3%
Totals 2.5
Over61.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 69.6% |
| 12 | 75.1% | |
| X2 | 55.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 63.3% / 36.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 94.9% / 5.1% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 83.2% / 16.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 61.1% / 38.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 38.8% / 61.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 21.2% / 78.8% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 10.1% / 89.9% |
Goal distribution model
San Diego FC × Houston Dynamo
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
5.1%
0:1
5.2%
0:2
4.2%
0:3
2.0%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
6.6%
1:1
11.3%
1:2
7.4%
1:3
3.5%
1:4
1.2%
1:5
0.3%
2
2:0
6.5%
2:1
9.1%
2:2
6.5%
2:3
3.0%
2:4
1.1%
2:5
0.3%
3
3:0
3.8%
3:1
5.3%
3:2
3.8%
3:3
1.8%
3:4
0.6%
3:5
0.2%
4
4:0
1.6%
4:1
2.3%
4:2
1.6%
4:3
0.8%
4:4
0.3%
4:5
0.1%
5
5:0
0.6%
5:1
0.8%
5:2
0.6%
5:3
0.3%
5:4
0.1%
5:5
0.0%
Most likely scores
1:111.3%
2:19.1%
1:27.4%
1:06.6%
2:06.5%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away Austin FC 3:3
- 21.09.2026 away Inter Miami 2:2
- 14.09.2026 home Philadelphia Union 0:5
- 10.09.2026 home San Jose Earthquakes 2:3
- 06.09.2026 away Orlando City 0:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Sporting Kansas City 0:2
- 20.09.2026 home FC Cincinnati 2:2
- 13.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 0:1
- 10.09.2026 home Real Salt Lake 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Charlotte 0:0
This season: San Diego FC at home vs Houston Dynamo away
| Metric | San Diego FC · at home | Houston Dynamo · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 6–3–5 | 5–2–6 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.29 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.71 | 1.54 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 86% | 38% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 38% |
Head-to-head · Last 3 meetings
San Diego FC wins1
Draws0
Houston Dynamo wins2
Goals per match4.67
Both teams scored2/3
Over 2.5 goals2/3
- 23.04.2026 Houston Dynamo 1:0 San Diego FC
- 05.10.2025 Houston Dynamo 2:4 San Diego FC
- 06.07.2025 San Diego FC 3:4 Houston Dynamo
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Odds movement
| W1 | was 2.05 → now 2.15 |
| X | was 3.60 → now 3.75 |
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