Los Angeles Galaxy — Portland Timbers: Win probabilities, 15.10.2026
Mathematical model
Odds updated
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
W1
48.2%
Home win
Los Angeles Galaxy
X
23.3%
Draw
W2
28.5%
Away win
Portland Timbers
Market matrix
Markets
Double chance
1276.7%
Both teams to score
Yes70.8%
Totals 2.5
Over71.1%
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 71.5% |
| 12 | 76.7% | |
| X2 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 70.8% / 29.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.4% / 3.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 89.3% / 10.7% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 71.1% / 28.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 50.1% / 49.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 30.8% / 69.2% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 16.7% / 83.3% |
Goal distribution model
Los Angeles Galaxy × Portland Timbers
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Home↘Away
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
0:0
3.6%
0:1
2.9%
0:2
3.2%
0:3
1.7%
0:4
0.7%
0:5
0.2%
1
1:0
4.2%
1:1
9.5%
1:2
6.7%
1:3
3.5%
1:4
1.4%
1:5
0.4%
2
2:0
5.5%
2:1
8.8%
2:2
7.0%
2:3
3.7%
2:4
1.5%
2:5
0.5%
3
3:0
3.8%
3:1
6.1%
3:2
4.8%
3:3
2.6%
3:4
1.0%
3:5
0.3%
4
4:0
2.0%
4:1
3.2%
4:2
2.5%
4:3
1.3%
4:4
0.5%
4:5
0.2%
5
5:0
0.8%
5:1
1.3%
5:2
1.1%
5:3
0.6%
5:4
0.2%
5:5
0.1%
Most likely scores
1:19.5%
2:18.8%
2:27.0%
1:26.7%
3:16.1%
Match data
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 15.10.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 home Colorado Rapids 3:2
- 20.09.2026 away Minnesota United 3:2
- 13.09.2026 home Seattle Sounders 1:1
- 10.09.2026 away Vancouver Whitecaps 0:3
- 06.09.2026 home New England Revolution 2:1
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 27.09.2026 away San Jose Earthquakes 1:3
- 20.09.2026 home Atlanta Utd 0:1
- 13.09.2026 away FC Dallas 1:2
- 10.09.2026 home St. Louis City 2:2
- 06.09.2026 home Minnesota United 5:4
This season: Los Angeles Galaxy at home vs Portland Timbers away
| Metric | Los Angeles Galaxy · at home | Portland Timbers · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 13 |
| W–D–L | 5–5–4 | 2–2–9 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.29 | 1.31 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.29 | 2.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 62% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 69% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
Los Angeles Galaxy wins1
Draws3
Portland Timbers wins2
Goals per match4.50
Both teams scored6/6
Over 2.5 goals4/6
- 22.03.2026 Portland Timbers 1:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 28.04.2025 Los Angeles Galaxy 2:4 Portland Timbers
- 16.03.2025 Portland Timbers 1:1 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 19.09.2024 Portland Timbers 4:2 Los Angeles Galaxy
- 21.07.2024 Los Angeles Galaxy 3:2 Portland Timbers
- 01.10.2023 Los Angeles Galaxy 3:3 Portland Timbers
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
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